Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
747 FXUS65 KMSO 232014 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 214 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 .DISCUSSION...As the main closed low departs toward the Dakotas, northwest flow will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, mainly across northwest Montana. Showery conditions persist in northwest Montana overnight into Friday morning. Snow levels will be above 6000 feet thus snow accumulations will remain in the mountains. Partial clearing may occur from I-90 southward on Friday morning, protect any sensitive vegetation as low temperatures will be near freezing. Instability showers and a few thunderstorms pop up Friday afternoon and evening. Watch for gusty winds of 20-30 mph near showers/storms. High temperatures will rebound to seasonable levels with 60s for lower valleys of western Montana/70s in lower elevations of north-central Idaho. The next system with the potential for widespread precipitation arrives Saturday morning exiting by early Sunday. About 80% of ensemble clusters support a closed low near the Northern Rockies but there is considerable disagreement on the track. Also, the Saturday system appears slightly warmer and less organized compared to the most recent impactful closed low. Current snow levels are projected at 5000-6000 feet but if the closed low becomes well developed, these will most certainly be lower just northwest of the track of the low. Lower snow levels would present a potential for pass level road impacts during the overnight/morning hours. A general warming and drying trend is seen Sunday into early next week. Highs return to above normal levels with valleys highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday. Southwest flow becomes well established late Tuesday which is a decent set up for scattered thunderstorms, perhaps a few strong ones. && .AVIATION...As the main closed low departs toward the Dakotas, northwest flow will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, mainly across northwest Montana. Showery conditions with occasional visibility and ceiling reductions continue tonight into Friday morning around KGPI. Additional instability showers and a few thunderstorms pop up again on Friday afternoon. Winds will be relatively light overall but gusts of 15-25 kts will occur near showers/storms. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$