Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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961 FXUS66 KMTR 161725 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1025 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Slight rain chances continue early this morning. Gradually clearing with cooler temps today. Another system enters the picture Wednesday with additional rain chances. Warming into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 842 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Isolated rain showers persist over the region this morning, mainly from the East Bay, Santa Cruz Mountains and across the Central Coast. Look for continued showers to persist and shift southward throughout the day before diminishing in coverage by this evening. Rainfall amounts generally range from 0.01-0.10". Forecast remains on track this morning with no updates anticipated at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Winds are slowly decreasing but still gusty this morning as the core of the upper low moves over. Radar showing some isolated shower activity well offshore, but nothing overly exciting. We are expecting some of that activity to migrate eastward through the morning, potentially impacting the Bay Area and points southward by late morning to mid day. Still not expecting anything to write home about, but some lucky areas along the SF Peninsula, eastern Santa Clara Co, and some high terrain areas around Monterey Bay could see up to a tenth of an inch or so. As one of my old colleagues would say, "that`s not nothin!" Winds will continue to diminish throughout the morning, as will shower activity by the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be much cooler today for areas south of the Bay Area where cloud cover will linger a little longer. Temps in the North Bay will still be on the cooler side for the time of year, but relatively close to yesterday thanks to earlier sky clearing. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 154 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The next system set to come through Wednesday looks to be very similar, but with slightly less of a wind threat. Still looking at breezy winds in the same areas early Wednesday morning, but more on the order of 25-35 mph as opposed to the 45-50 mph we saw over the last 24 hours. A bit of a better chance for thunder with the Wednesday system as well. Still a low chance (~15%), but with a bit more cooling aloft and more lower level moisture, there is more widespread instability late Tuesday night going into Wednesday morning. Rain amounts still look to be on the lower side, if any, similar to today. Beyond Wednesday there really isn`t much noteworthy to write about. A casual warm up is on tap going into the weekend that will bring our temperatures to around seasonal normals. By the end of the weekend, there is some discrepancy in ensemble guidance regarding the strength of a possible ridge pattern. More on that in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Widespread mid-level cloud cover with scattered MVFR ceilings continue throughout the region. Light rain showers continue over the Central Coast, but are expected to diminish within the next several hours. Otherwise the terminals remain dry, with breezy northwest winds this afternoon and evening. Some clearing is expected in the North Bay down to the Bay Area terminals, with the Central coast remaining socked into MVFR ceilings all day today through the end of the TAF period. Extensive inland stratus develops overnight, assisted by the moist lower levels as a result of the light rain. Vicinity of SFO... MVFR cloud cover expected to lift to a mid-level ceiling through the morning. Winds will be breezy from the west- northwest with gusts of 15-20 knots in the afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings return late tonight, with clearing to VFR late Tuesday morning. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... Light rain showers continue for another couple of hours. MVFR to mid-level overcast cloud cover through the TAF period, and potentially through Tuesday after the TAF period ends, especially at MRY. Breezy onshore winds this afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 842 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Northwest winds continue to gradually decrease today to become fresh breezes. Seas continue to build through the day today, becoming rough in the NW waters. There is a bit of a break on Tuesday before a second cold front brings the return of strong NW winds and rough seas to the exposed coastal waters. Overall it will be a challenging week for smaller craft. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea