105
FXUS66 KMTR 121139
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
439 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Cooler today in response to a weak frontal passage. Quiet through
the rest of the week with temperatures at or slightly above seasonal
averages by the weekend. Potential for wind and increased fire
danger towards Sunday and into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday by a few to several
degrees (especially across the interior) as a weak frontal boundary
moved through the region. Thus, only Minor HeatRisk are expected
across the region with isolated pockets reaching the moderate levels
across the far interior. Temperatures this afternoon will range from
the 60`s near the coast, 70`s to lower 80`s around the bayshore and
other locations just inland, and into the upper 80`s to mid/upper
90`s across the far interior (places such as Cloverdale and
Knoxville).

Tonight, expecting more widespread stratus to penetrate inland as
the marine layer begins to deepen. Overnight low temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 40`s across the North Bay and San
Francisco Peninsula with low/mid 50`s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Not much to write home about as we head through the latter half of
the week. Warm afternoons with temps getting down to around
seasonal averages by the weekend. The next thing in the timeline
that we are watching closely will be during the late weekend to
early next week timeframe. Ensemble cluster analysis depicts a
slight pattern change with decent confidence that will bring windy
conditions to the region. It currently looks like the highest
winds will be confined to the waters and coastal areas, and some
over the higher terrain. With this pattern, it appears the winds
would be more northwesterly, thus, holding off on any mention of
"offshore" for now as the position of the trough currently does
not support that. However, with grasses and fine fuels drying out
rapidly, it looks like the Sunday-Monday timeframe is one to
watch when it comes to elevated fire danger, particularly in the
North Bay where fine fuels are drier than elsewhere around the Bay
Area and Central Coast. For now, moisture recovery looks decent
going into the weekend as winds should remain onshore, but we are
keeping a close eye on the positioning of the trough and will
update messaging accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 439 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Currently VFR across the region with the exception of Monterey Bay.
Expect VFR conditions to last through the majority of the TAF period
with the exception of North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals. Winds
will increase out of the SW this afternoon to become moderate around
15 knots for most terminals, and gusting to around 20 knots. Stratus
begins to return in the late night for North Bay terminals bringing
MVFR CIGs.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, with high confidence.
Winds will increase out of the SW this afternoon to become moderate,
and gusts up to 25 knots. In the late night, coastal stratus will
line the coast, but is not expected to form a CIG at SFO. Gusty
winds ease in the late night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR conditions last through the late
morning, though CIGs begin to lift and become MVFR beyond sunrise as
diurnal heating begins. KMRY is not likely to clear today, and
instead will see predominantly MVFR CIGs through the afternoon and
evening. Any clearing that occurs is likely to be very brief and
short lived, as moderate to gusty SW winds will likely help
continuously feed stratus inland, making it difficult to clear.
Therefore, have included a TEMPO for VFR conditions at KMRY in the
afternoon. Stratus is expected to fully envelop the terminal again
by the early evening, and lasting through the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Fresh to strong northwesterly winds continue over the northern
waters through the end of the week. Gale force gusts remain
possible over the northern waters through the day today, but later
diminish into the late night tonight. Widespread strong
northwesterly winds with gale force gusts will build in by the
weekend and continue into next week. Significant wave heights
diminish later today to become 10-12 feet over the outer waters,
and last through the remainder of the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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