364
FXUS66 KMTR 110918
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
218 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The hottest temperatures are expected today with a Heat Advisory
posted for interior areas. Starting Wednesday, the cool down begins
as zonal flow resumes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The interior is forecast to reach into the mid 90`s to 102 degrees
this afternoon. Thus, a Heat Advisory is posted for interior
portions of the region from 11 AM to 8 PM. This is where HeatRisk
are at moderate levels with a few isolated spots at major levels in
the far inland portions of the North Bay and East Bay. This is where
impacts will be greatest to all who are sensitive to heat (ill,
young, elderly, pregnant) and those who are without adequate cooling
and/or hydration. Continued onshore flow will keep conditions cooler
near the immediate coast with mid/upper 60`s to low 70`s with 80`s
to low 90`s around the bayshore.

For anyone participating in outdoors activities today, remember to
drink plenty of water and to take plenty of breaks in a cool/shaded
area. For anyone planning to visit the coast or a nearby body of
water: remember to wear a life jacket, ideally swim near a
lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock.

Temperatures this evening will cool fairly quickly as onshore flow
increases with overnight lows generally in the 50`s (warmer in the
higher elevations). Low clouds look to return overnight,
particularly within the Monterey Bay region and along the SF
Peninsula, with patchy fog possible along the Central Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Wednesday`s highs will range from the mid 80`s to low 90`s inland
with a few areas potentially reaching the upper 90`s (places such as
Lake Berryessa). Wednesday marks the last day with isolated moderate
HeatRisk as upper level ridging moves out of the area. Thursday
through Monday, widespread minor heat risk continues and inland
highs will drop back into the 80`s to low 90`s. For coastal areas,
high temperatures will continue to be in the upper 50`s to mid 60`s
as onshore flow persists.

Gustier, drier conditions look possible this weekend. Remember to
exercise caution when using campfires and grills/smokers to prevent
sparks from reaching ignition sources as recent grass fires (Crystal
Fire, Corral Fire) have shown small fuels (such as grasses) are
nearly dry and are becoming more susceptible to burning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 PM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A look at satellite this evening shows mostly clear skies across the
region with coastal clouds beginning to creep inland down the
Salinas Valley, and inland through the Golden Gate gap. The Ft. Ord
and Bodega Bay Profilers show the marine layer currently around 1000
and 400 feet, respectively, and compressing as a warmer and drier
air mass begins to form aloft.

Otherwise, its currently VFR across the region, with the exception
of Monterey Bay. However, expect coastal terminals to develop
IFR/LIFR ceilings overnight tonight as the low coastal clouds
continue to push inland, and high pressure developing continually
compresses the marine layer. This compression will result in cloud
ceilings lowering through the nighttime, ushering in the LIFR
conditions for select terminals, especially Monterey Bay. Light
winds are expected overnight, but will generally be out of the west,
helping to deliver and transport these clouds inland. Beyond
sunrise, coastal clouds will begin to mix out, leading to widespread
VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period. Winds will
increase to become onshore and breezy in the afternoon today.


Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR, with moderate confidence on
maintaining VFR conditions through the nighttime. Low clouds
filtering through the Golden Gate gap may form SCT-FEW clouds around
the terminal, but confidence is low in them forming a ceiling.
Additionally, as the marine layer continues to compress, thoughts
are that clouds will be prevented from filtering in through the San
Bruno gap, thereby lessening the chances of ceiling formation at the
terminal. Winds light overnight tonight, then increasing into the
afternoon out of the W/NW and breezy around 13 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR conditions will persist through at
least sunrise, with visibility expected to decrease throughout the
night as cloud ceilings continually lower through the night,
eventually resulting in fog formation in the early morning of
Tuesday. Beyond sunrise, expectation is that these low clouds will
begin to mix out and evaporate, leading to VFR conditions through
the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Strong winds over the outer waters out of the northwest continue
through the midweek, with gale-force gusts over the northern outer
waters expected through early Wednesday. Gales then diminish in
the afternoon Wednesday. Significant wave heights 13 to 15 feet
possible in the gale zones through Wednesday. Significant wave
heights will mostly be dominated by wind driven waves, though
there is a moderate northwesterly swell and a low southwesterly
swell mixed in.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for CAZ504-506-510-513>515-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass/Kennedy
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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