623
FXUS66 KMTR 160951
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
251 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Dry and windy with elevated fire concerns into early next week.
Seasonal temps and quiet weather midweek. Potential warming trend
for late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024
(Today and tonight)

Satellite fog product shows clear skies over much of California.
It`s June, where is the coastal stratus? For a few days now, we`ve
been talking about pressure gradients leading to stronger winds
and drier air. That continues to be the case again tonight into
Sunday. No major change to the overall synoptic pattern - an upper
low remains near the PacNW and broad upper level ridging remains
over Baja/E Central Pacific. The Bay Area and Central Coast remain
sandwiched in the middle. Speaking of gradients, the N-S
gradients was over -8mb earlier tonight. Anything greater
than -7mb is usually a good stratus eraser. The stronger
northerly flow happens to be ushering in drier air as well, which
is also contributing to less clouds. Latest 24 hr trends continue
to indicated RH values in some area 5 to 40 percent drier than
last night.

Not expecting much of a change in the overall sensible weather
over the next 24 hours. Max temps today will be in the uppers to
lower 70s for the coast/bays and upper 60s to near 90 across the
interior. Winds will be breezy through the afternoon, especially
along the coast and any inland gap/pass. Do expect another burst
of stronger winds later this evening and overnight as the upper
low tightens and moves SE toward the Great Basin. Still not
strong enough/widespread for a Wind Advisory, but the marine
environment will remain hazardous with very pronounced coastal
jets.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 240 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Monday through Saturday)

To begin the work week temperatures hold steady or cool a few
degrees in response to a passing upper level trough. Either way,
still seasonably cool for mid-June. One final day of breezy
northerly flow as well, before winds finally ease Monday night
into Tuesday with weakening pressure gradients.

A subtle warming trend begins midweek before a more notable warm
up impacts California in the extended. Confidence continues to
increase as longer range probabilistic tools and ensemble
guidance show ridging with interior heat. Still several days out,
but impactful heat will return to the interior by next Friday and
linger through the weekend. HeatRisk guidance continues to trend
upward with more interior portions reaching the Moderate
category. Will need to keep an eye on this as the forecast becomes
more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions throughout the region, generally through the TAF
period. Model output has some probability of stratus development
tonight at the immediate coast and the Monterey Bay region, but
confidence is low and strong winds aloft may keep the skies clear
through the night. Northwest winds will abate at the terminals, but
will remain breezy through the night before strong northwest winds
with gusts up to 20 to 30 knots resume Sunday afternoon. Marginal
LLWS concerns will develop on Sunday evening along the coastal
ranges as the surface layer decouples, but confidence is too low to
include it in the TAFs.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. West-northwest winds
will remain breezy and gusty overnight with intense gusts returning
on Sunday afternoon. Moderate confidence that gusts at SFO will
exceed 35 knots sometime on Sunday. Additional TAF updates will take
newer model guidance into account. Marginal LLWS concerns develop
on Sunday evening close to the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Model output shows some probability of IFR
ceilings developing in the region later tonight, but confidence is
low and the TAFs remain VFR throughout. Onshore winds will remain
breezy through the night before becoming strong on Sunday afternoon

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 849 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A tight pressure gradient over the waters continues to allow for
strong northwest breezes and widespread gale force gusts to
persist through the weekend. Significant wave heights will reach
12-17 feet through the weekend before beginning to decrease
Monday. Hazardous conditions will linger into the first half of
next week as winds remain strong.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2024

...Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Through The Weekend...

*Breezy to gusty northerly winds, especially higher terrain
*Lowering relative humidity values day and night

It goes without saying, but elevated fire weather conditions
remain over the district. Yesterday was a prime example of dry
northerly flow with receptive fine fuels. The Hernandez Fire
burned in San Benito county. One can still see a little be of heat
on the satellite imagery. Expect more of the same today with grass
fires being the biggest concern.

It`s Father`s Day and you may have outdoor plans - like a BBQ.
Just be mindful about any open flame and don`t be that "spark" to
start the next fire.

MM

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-
     10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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