513
FXUS66 KMTR 031714
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1014 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 950 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

 - Elevated fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon and evening
   for the East Bay and Santa Cruz Mountains.

 - Northwest winds of 30 to 55 mph Thursday afternoon and evening
   across gaps, passes, and some valleys.

 - Night and morning low clouds clearing to the coast each
   afternoon remains.

 - Near normal temperatures with slightly below normal
   temperatures Thursday and Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The inherited short term forecast is in good shape with only a
few alterations to peak wind gusts. Onshore flow is anticipated to
continue in earnest today with the SFO-SAC gradient of +3 to +5
mb. This is toward the higher end of the scale when it comes to
anticipating, at least qualitatively, the magnitude of onshore
winds. Short term model guidance in conjunction with higher end
NBM wind probabilities appear to support anywhere from 35 to near
50 knot surface winds through some of the favored gaps, passes,
and exposed NW to SE oriented valleys across the Bay Area and
Central Coast. Specifically, areas near and down wind of the San
Bruno Gap, Altamont Pass, and the Salinas Valley will be most
prone to the strongest winds. As such, afternoon wind gust grids
have been adjusted to match closer to the latest model guidance
with gusts averaging between 30 and 55 mph in this regions.
Because of the limited geographic extent, we aren`t anticipating
any wind headlines. Fire weather concerns remain elevated due to
the increased breezes. While onshore flow will keep afternoon
humidity above critical thresholds, smaller/finer fuels such as
the grasses and brush are cured, available and will support some
fire spread if left unmonitored. In short, be mindful if handling
an open flame, be sure to avoid parking on tall grass/vegetation,
extinguish camp fires. Also, obey any local fire restrictions,
burn bans, and/or firework regulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 300 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 (Today and tonight)

Overnight satellite fog product shows a slightly different set up
early Thursday morning compare to the last few nights. While we
still have some marine layer clouds extending into the Salinas
Valley, northern areas are seeing much less in the way of low
clouds. A pocket of drier air near the surface, stronger N-S
gradient, and passing high level clouds are all likely
contributing to less clouds. Latest hi-res capture this rather
well so portions of the North Bay, East Bay, and Bay Shoreline
will likely see the sunrise unlike the last few mornings. Coastal
San Mateo southward to Big Sur, including Monterey Bay region,
will be cloudy. Decided to remove drizzle from the forecast as
well based over observation and lastest model guidance.

The bigger story for Thursday will be the changing longwave
pattern overhead leading to gusty onshore winds. An upper level
shortwave trough currently upstream will sweep through the state
this afternoon. As such onshore flow will ramp up through the day
and peak close to 5 mb for SFO-SAC. That translates to gusty winds
25-40 mph for the coast, mts, gaps/passes. Could even see some
isolate gusts up to 50 mph for the East Bay Hills. The passing
trough will also usher in some drier air leading to fire weather
concerns. See Fire Section below for details.

If one happens to look at satellite you`ll notice the Madre Fire
currently burning in SLO. Given transport flow smoke from this
fire is currently not expected to impact the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 315 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025
(Friday through Wednesday)

By Friday, the shortwave trough will have exited to the east as
broad troughing will remain over the West. Therefore, a cloudy
start to the 4th of July is expected with some afternoon sunshine.
Temperatures will be mild, but seasonably cool for early July.
What about clouds impacting evening activities? Definitely
possible as the marine layer begin to move inland. Greatest
impacts will be for the immediate coast, Monterey Bay region, and
through the Golden Gate.

For the upcoming holiday weekend - seasonably cool with
night/morning clouds and inland afternoon sunshine. Early next
becomes a little more uncertain as guidance develops another cut-
off low off the Bay Area coast. Upper lows are always tricky with
regards to marine layer development and possible precip. This low
looks to be dry, but we`ll keep an eye on it. By Wednesday this
feature drifts north as a Four Corner high builds westward. The
building ridge will kick off a warm trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

IFR to MVFR conditions currently at the Monterey Bay terminals and
coastal spots such as HAF. Low ceilings are forecast to gradually
scatter out and lift through the morning and early afternoon.
However, coastal locations such as MRY and HAF have a greater
probability of IFR/MVFR ceilings to persist throughout much of the
day. Onshore winds increase this afternoon, stronger than previous
days!

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. High confidence for a windy day with gusts
expected to reach or exceed 35 kt at the terminal. Winds ease
slightly after sunset yet remain out of the west to northwest into
Friday. Low confidence for MVFR ceilings to return early Friday
morning, OAK would be mostly likely if any do develop. Any low
clouds that do develop will scatter out and/or lift by around 16Z
Friday with increasing onshore winds.

SFO Bridge Approach...Moderate to high confidence for VFR
conditions over the approach through the forecast period.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR to MVFR forecast to lift to
MVFR to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. West to northwest
winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt at SNS, before
easing after sunset. High confidence for IFR to MVFR to return late
this evening and potentially lowering to LIFR early Friday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Gusty northwesterly winds and rough seas will continue through
late today. Gale force gusts will be likely across northern waters
through today. Winds easing by early next week. A low-amplitude
long period southerly swell will arrive today and persist through
Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

No real change from previous thinking. Increasing winds this
afternoon and lower humidity will create near critical fire
weather conditions. Areas of greatest concern continue to be the
East Bay Hills, Eastern Santa Clara Hills, and Santa Cruz
mountains. Winds will be gusts 25-40 mph with isolated gusts up to
55 mph (Think Altamont Pass). The current wind forecast and state
of the fuels will allow for a spike in the Burn Index for the
Diablo/Santa Cruz region. Predicted values will exceed the 97
percentile. Simply put, be one less spark, especially with the
holiday and potential firework impacts.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay-SF
     Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10
     nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Friday for Pt
     Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Bain
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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