Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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051 FXUS66 KMTR 111727 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1027 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The hottest temperatures are expected today with a Heat Advisory posted for interior areas. Starting Wednesday, the cool down begins as zonal flow resumes. && .UPDATE... Issued at 917 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Temperatures appear on track with the current forecast temps and stratus clearing, so will not make any changes this morning. Heat Advisory officially goes into effect at 11AM this morning and will run through 8PM this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The interior is forecast to reach into the mid 90`s to 102 degrees this afternoon. Thus, a Heat Advisory is posted for interior portions of the region from 11 AM to 8 PM. This is where HeatRisk are at moderate levels with a few isolated spots at major levels in the far inland portions of the North Bay and East Bay. This is where impacts will be greatest to all who are sensitive to heat (ill, young, elderly, pregnant) and those who are without adequate cooling and/or hydration. Continued onshore flow will keep conditions cooler near the immediate coast with mid/upper 60`s to low 70`s with 80`s to low 90`s around the bayshore. For anyone participating in outdoors activities today, remember to drink plenty of water and to take plenty of breaks in a cool/shaded area. For anyone planning to visit the coast or a nearby body of water: remember to wear a life jacket, ideally swim near a lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock. Temperatures this evening will cool fairly quickly as onshore flow increases with overnight lows generally in the 50`s (warmer in the higher elevations). Low clouds look to return overnight, particularly within the Monterey Bay region and along the SF Peninsula, with patchy fog possible along the Central Coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 217 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Wednesday`s highs will range from the mid 80`s to low 90`s inland with a few areas potentially reaching the upper 90`s (places such as Lake Berryessa). Wednesday marks the last day with isolated moderate HeatRisk as upper level ridging moves out of the area. Thursday through Monday, widespread minor heat risk continues and inland highs will drop back into the 80`s to low 90`s. For coastal areas, high temperatures will continue to be in the upper 50`s to mid 60`s as onshore flow persists. Gustier, drier conditions look possible this weekend. Remember to exercise caution when using campfires and grills/smokers to prevent sparks from reaching ignition sources as recent grass fires (Crystal Fire, Corral Fire) have shown small fuels (such as grasses) are nearly dry and are becoming more susceptible to burning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 LIFR-IFR stratus persists at the immediate coast, but is generally expected to gradually mix out through the rest of the day. Breezy onshore flow, generally from the northwest, is expected to develop this afternoon with gusts up to 15 knots. Stratus returns to the Monterey Bay region, Salinas Valley, and the Gilroy-Hollister region tonight, and generally limited to the immediate coastal region elsewhere. Models indicate that afternoon and evening winds will turn to a more southwesterly direction on Wednesday. Vicinity of SFO... High confidence of VFR through the TAF period. OAK sees a low probability (less than 10%) of IFR-LIFR stratus tonight, but with very low confidence in said scenario the TAF remains VFR throughout. West-northwest winds gusting to 20-25 knots this afternoon and evening, diminishing overnight before they turn towards the southwest on Wednesday, becoming somewhat more intense with gusts up to 25-30 knots. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR continues through the day with stratus at the immediate coast diminishing through the afternoon. Breezy onshore winds developing this afternoon and evening, with gusts up to 15-20 knots at SNS. LIFR stratus returns late tonight and through Wednesday morning. Timing of clearing is somewhat uncertain but a persistence forecast has the clearing just before the end of the TAF period. Breezy onshore winds return to the region on Wednesday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 917 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Strong northwest winds over the outer waters continue through midweek, with gale-force gusts over the northern outer waters expected through early Wednesday. Winds diminish in the afternoon Wednesday. Significant wave heights 13 to 15 feet possible in the northern outer waters through Wednesday. Significant wave heights will mostly be dominated by wind driven waves, though there is a moderate northwesterly swell and a low southwesterly swell mixed in. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ504-506-510- 513>515-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea