345
FXUS66 KMTR 101546
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
846 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 405 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The warm up begins today with hot temperatures expected over the
next few days. Starting Thursday, the cool down begins as
troughing resumes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Buckle up, as day 1 of warmer temperatures is here! You`ve heard us
say it again and again this past weekend, but the day has finally
arrived. So lets dive in. While its currently cool and comfortable
across the region in the low to mid 50s, with satellite showing
stratus trickling in through coastal mountain gaps, temperatures
will begin to increase today as ridging begins. Inland regions will
largely reach into the lower 90s, with areas closer to the bay
shorelines achieving the upper 70s to low 80s. Along the immediate
coastline, temperatures will largely remain in the lower 60s. With
decent onshore flow this afternoon, and stratus lingering in the
morning, temperatures along the coast will be comfortable for most.
Breezy onshore winds in the late afternoon will serve as a reprieve
from the heat this afternoon and evening. Overnight lows for most
regions will then be in the mid to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The forecast continues to be in good shape, so won`t
reinvent the wheel too much with this long term discussion.

Tuesday, temperatures increase a few degrees compared to today with
upper 90s expected for most inland regions, and the warmest spots
reaching into the low 100s. Areas expected to reach the low 100s are
the northern portions of Sonoma and Napa counties, the southern
Salinas valley and San Benito county, and more generally along the
easternmost portions of counties bordering the Central Valley.
Tuesday will be the warmest day we see this week. As a result,
HeatRisk is largely in the Moderate category for most inland areas,
indicating that this has the potential to impact most individuals
sensitive to heat (ill, elderly, young, pregnant), or simply those
without adequate cooling methods (such as air conditioning) or
shelter. Minor HeatRisk is present for all other areas, minus the
immediate coastline. A Heat Advisory has been issued for inland
areas from 11am Tuesday through 8pm Tuesday.

Warm temperatures and Minor HeatRisk for most areas persists into
Wednesday, but begin to drop by a few degrees, with high temps
largely similar to those on Monday. Coastal areas throughout this
event will remain relatively cool in the mid to upper 60s, perhaps
touching the lower 70s on Tuesday as onshore flow helps maintain
more comfortable temperatures. As it currently stands, models
continue to show light onshore flow persisting at the surface.

During this heat keep in mind these safety tips: Make sure you are
staying adequately hydrated during times of warmer temperatures,
take breaks in the shade if working outdoors, and check in on loved
ones who perhaps fall into the demographics of those most sensitive
to heat. Additionally, if planning to visit the coast or a body of
water to cool off, make sure you wear a lifejacket, swim ideally
near a lifeguard, and be aware of the risks of cold water shock.

Towards Thursday, high temperatures take a dip and begin to cool off
as troughing resumes. A cutoff low hanging off the coast of southern
California will lift out to our northeast, inducing the cool-off.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 412 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

IFR/MVFR CIGs have moved far enough inland to affect all of the
TAF sites, but are expected to erode in the mid to late morning.
Winds stay light to moderate through the morning before increasing
this afternoon, with gusty winds along the immediate coast and at
SFO. Expect winds to reduce into Monday evening as stratus begins
to move slightly inland. This will offer IFR/MVFR CIGs along the
coast and affecting MRY, then SNS and finally OAK and APC into
early Tuesday. Pockets of mist and drizzle will be possible along
the coast overnight as well.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR/IFR CIGs linger into the mid morning before
clearing. Winds decrease into the mid morning before breezy
westerly winds arrive Monday afternoon with peak gusts around 20
kts. Gusts taper off into the late evening but winds stay moderate
through Tuesday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR CIGS with pockets of drizzle
last with light to moderate winds last into the late morning.
Expect more moderate to breezy winds to arrive in the late morning as
CIGs thin. Winds become light into Monday evening as IFR CIGs
approach the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 846 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Breezy and gusty northwesterly winds continue along with rough
seas for the outer waters. Winds increase in through the mid week
with gale-force gusts expected in the northern waters.
Significant wave heights will mostly be dominated by wind driven
waves, though there is a moderate northwesterly swell and a low
southwesterly swell mixed in.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ504-506-510-
     513>515-518.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to
     Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM....AC
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Flynn

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