072
FXUS66 KMTR 120947
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
247 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Cooler today in response to a weak frontal passage. Quiet through
the rest of the week with temperatures at or slightly above seasonal
averages by the weekend. Potential for wind and increased fire
danger towards Sunday and into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday by a few to several
degrees (especially across the interior) as a weak frontal boundary
moved through the region. Thus, only Minor HeatRisk are expected
across the region with isolated pockets reaching the moderate levels
across the far interior. Temperatures this afternoon will range from
the 60`s near the coast, 70`s to lower 80`s around the bayshore and
other locations just inland, and into the upper 80`s to mid/upper
90`s across the far interior (places such as Cloverdale and
Knoxville).

Tonight, expecting more widespread stratus to penetrate inland as
the marine layer begins to deepen. Overnight low temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 40`s across the North Bay and San
Francisco Peninsula with low/mid 50`s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Not much to write home about as we head through the latter half of
the week. Warm afternoons with temps getting down to around
seasonal averages by the weekend. The next thing in the timeline
that we are watching closely will be during the late weekend to
early next week timeframe. Ensemble cluster analysis depicts a
slight pattern change with decent confidence that will bring windy
conditions to the region. It currently looks like the highest
winds will be confined to the waters and coastal areas, and some
over the higher terrain. With this pattern, it appears the winds
would be more northwesterly, thus, holding off on any mention of
"offshore" for now as the position of the trough currently does
not support that. However, with grasses and fine fuels drying out
rapidly, it looks like the Sunday-Monday timeframe is one to
watch when it comes to elevated fire danger, particularly in the
North Bay where fine fuels are drier than elsewhere around the Bay
Area and Central Coast. For now, moisture recovery looks decent
going into the weekend as winds should remain onshore, but we are
keeping a close eye on the positioning of the trough and will
update messaging accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024

High pressure over the region has all but eroded the marine layer
and coastal clouds (stratus) along the northern portion of the
coast. As a result, expected widespread VFR across the region
through the night and into the evening Wednesday, with the exception
of Monterey Bay who is likely to see LIFR conditions Wednesday
morning from low stratus ceilings. Winds in the afternoon of
Wednesday will increase to become breezy and gusty out of the
southwest as low pressure to our south begins to lift out of the
region.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, with high
confidence. Stratus has completely disappeared from the coast and
not expected to return within the TAF period. Winds in the morning
of Wednesday are expected to turn SW, though there is some
question as to how strong winds will become in the afternoon.
There appears to be some model disagreement in wind strength.
Moderate confidence in winds achieving gusts of 25 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR, but expected to develop LIFR
ceilings in the early morning of Wednesday as stratus clouds slowly
creep up the Monterey coastline through the overnight. LIFR then
lasts beyond sunrise. Clearing of stratus clouds is not expected
until late, towards noontime, with only a few hours in VFR
conditions. As SW winds strengthen into the afternoon to become
moderate around 15 knots, stratus is expected to push in once more,
bringing IFR/MVFR ceilings. Ceilings then last through the remainder
of the TAF period with winds slowly easing into the late night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Fresh to strong northwesterly winds continue over the northern
waters through the end of the week. Gale force gusts remain
possible over the northern waters through the day today, but later
diminish into the late night tonight. Widespread strong
northwesterly winds with gale force gusts will build in by the
weekend and continue into next week. Significant wave heights
diminish later today to become 10-12 feet over the outer waters,
and last through the remainder of the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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