Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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105 FXUS66 KMTR 121139 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 439 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Cooler today in response to a weak frontal passage. Quiet through the rest of the week with temperatures at or slightly above seasonal averages by the weekend. Potential for wind and increased fire danger towards Sunday and into Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday by a few to several degrees (especially across the interior) as a weak frontal boundary moved through the region. Thus, only Minor HeatRisk are expected across the region with isolated pockets reaching the moderate levels across the far interior. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the 60`s near the coast, 70`s to lower 80`s around the bayshore and other locations just inland, and into the upper 80`s to mid/upper 90`s across the far interior (places such as Cloverdale and Knoxville). Tonight, expecting more widespread stratus to penetrate inland as the marine layer begins to deepen. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 40`s across the North Bay and San Francisco Peninsula with low/mid 50`s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Not much to write home about as we head through the latter half of the week. Warm afternoons with temps getting down to around seasonal averages by the weekend. The next thing in the timeline that we are watching closely will be during the late weekend to early next week timeframe. Ensemble cluster analysis depicts a slight pattern change with decent confidence that will bring windy conditions to the region. It currently looks like the highest winds will be confined to the waters and coastal areas, and some over the higher terrain. With this pattern, it appears the winds would be more northwesterly, thus, holding off on any mention of "offshore" for now as the position of the trough currently does not support that. However, with grasses and fine fuels drying out rapidly, it looks like the Sunday-Monday timeframe is one to watch when it comes to elevated fire danger, particularly in the North Bay where fine fuels are drier than elsewhere around the Bay Area and Central Coast. For now, moisture recovery looks decent going into the weekend as winds should remain onshore, but we are keeping a close eye on the positioning of the trough and will update messaging accordingly. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Currently VFR across the region with the exception of Monterey Bay. Expect VFR conditions to last through the majority of the TAF period with the exception of North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals. Winds will increase out of the SW this afternoon to become moderate around 15 knots for most terminals, and gusting to around 20 knots. Stratus begins to return in the late night for North Bay terminals bringing MVFR CIGs. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, with high confidence. Winds will increase out of the SW this afternoon to become moderate, and gusts up to 25 knots. In the late night, coastal stratus will line the coast, but is not expected to form a CIG at SFO. Gusty winds ease in the late night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR conditions last through the late morning, though CIGs begin to lift and become MVFR beyond sunrise as diurnal heating begins. KMRY is not likely to clear today, and instead will see predominantly MVFR CIGs through the afternoon and evening. Any clearing that occurs is likely to be very brief and short lived, as moderate to gusty SW winds will likely help continuously feed stratus inland, making it difficult to clear. Therefore, have included a TEMPO for VFR conditions at KMRY in the afternoon. Stratus is expected to fully envelop the terminal again by the early evening, and lasting through the remainder of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 246 AM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Fresh to strong northwesterly winds continue over the northern waters through the end of the week. Gale force gusts remain possible over the northern waters through the day today, but later diminish into the late night tonight. Widespread strong northwesterly winds with gale force gusts will build in by the weekend and continue into next week. Significant wave heights diminish later today to become 10-12 feet over the outer waters, and last through the remainder of the week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...AC MARINE...AC Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea