758
FXUS63 KOAX 262036
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
336 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong storm or two is possible in western Iowa this
  afternoon, and in portions of eastern Nebraska this evening.
  Hail and/or locally strong wind gusts are the main hazards.

- Gusty winds from decaying thunderstorms may spread east across
  the entire forecast area from as early as 02-03z to 06z.

- Dry, but breezy for Memorial Day.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast in the
  Wednesday night-Saturday time frame.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Tonight.

Three subtle shortwave disturbances near the area will provide
enough large-scale forcing for ascent to produce chances for
precipitation over our region. The first disturbance over
northwest Iowa could produce isolated showers and thunderstorms
over southwest Iowa over the next few hours. Instability remains
highest over western Iowa however wind shear is almost non-
existent across the entire area. Another weak wave across
northeast Kansas continues to produce a few showers along the
Kansas/Nebraska border and a few of these showers could spread
into far southeast Nebraska. An upstream disturbance currently
over southwestern South Dakota will continue to move east this
evening. Showers and thunderstorms have developed across
northwestern Nebraska in advance of this wave and latest CAM
consensus shows these spreading eastward into northeast Nebraska
by 01-03z. These poorly organized storms quickly decay and as a
result, push out gusty, possibly near-severe, winds from 02-06z
as the decaying storms continue eastward through the CWA. Am
only mentioning a < 20% chance of thunderstorms through the
evening and late tonight with these western storms, as a brief
uptick in wind gusts is the main hazard.

Memorial Day.

A northern Plains shortwave trough is forecast to pass the region to
our northeast on Memorial Day. Gusty northwest low-level winds
should push gusts by afternoon into the 25-35 mph range. Otherwise,
mostly sunny skies are expected with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Tuesday and Wednesday.

Dry weather is expected with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s
as weak mid-level ridging moves over the nation`s mid-section.


Thursday through Sunday.

This time period looks slightly more active as a strong upper trough
over the Canadian Rockies moves east/southeast across the northern
Plains into next weekend. There remain some discrepancies on timing
and just how far south this trough is able to influence the central
Plains. There is consensus in strong low-level moisture return with
surface dewpoints ranging in the 60s. Highs through this period
should top out in the 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Diurnally driven cumulus clouds continue to develop across the
forecast area this afternoon. Mostly VFR conditions are expected
but cannot rule out a passing MVFR ceiling throughout the
afternoon. A few scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop this afternoon, mostly across southwest Iowa through
sunset. Latest CAM output continues to suggest weak
thunderstorm development across western Nebraska after 03z. As
these decay and spread east, they could bring some light rain as
well as gusty winds as the storms fall apart and spread east.
Did included a tempo group at all sites for that late this
evening. Otherwise, northwesterly surface winds will prevail
with VFR conditions expected all of Monday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern
AVIATION...Kern