Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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662 FXUS63 KOAX 252056 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 356 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected later tonight with some severe weather possible, especially along and south of I-80. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding are the primary hazards. - A strong storm or two is possible in southeast NE and southwest IA Sunday afternoon/evening with hail and/or gusty winds possible. - Additional showers and storms are possible Wednesday night through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Tonight A deepening surface low over eastern Colorado will continue to move into central Kansas this evening with an associated warm front which is forecast to move north to near the Nebraska/Kansas border by late tonight. Aloft, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the High Plains late tonight. In addition, a strengthening and veering low-level jet will bring increasing low-level moisture into the region after dark as well as a moderately unstable environment. Latest CAM output consensus suggests initial thunderstorm development over western Nebraska and northwest Kansas in the next few hours and this is expected to continue to spread east/northeast into our area by 9-10pm and continue east/northeastward through 2am. Storms do look to remain elevated by the time they reach our are after dark. Ample shear and increasing mid-level lapse rates would support large hail and damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms look to linger across the forecast area overnight which could drop pockets of heavy rainfall. Due to the fairly quick speed these storms are forecast to move through, do not think widespread flash flooding will be an issue, but there certainly could be some very localized flooding if a few additional elevated storms train for a few hours. Sunday and Sunday Night A trailing shortwave trough is forecast to move east through the central Plains early Sunday while the associated surface low moves northeast across northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. CAM output continues to show scattered thunderstorm development across portions of our southern forecast area by afternoon where mid-level lapse rates will be strongest in association with the passing shortwave trough. Precipitation chances move off to our east by Sunday evening as the shortwave moves east. Memorial Day and Tuesday A potent shortwave trough is forecast to pass just to the northeast of the forecast area bringing northwesterly winds to the region and high temperatures in the 70s with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Dry conditions continue into Tuesday with surface high pressure building overhead with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday through Saturday Mid-level ridging builds overhead through the middle of the week with highs remaining in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Another mid- level shortwave is forecast to move across the central Plains by Thursday bringing our next chance for showers and thunderstorms by Thursday night. Broad southwesterly flow aloft will keep the pattern quite active into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Winds will be breezy, out of the south through the afternoon, with speeds generally up to 12 to 15 kts. Showers and thunderstorms will develop to our east over central Nebraska and northern Kansas, and move through the TAF sites between 04-09Z tonight. A second, west to east line of storms may develop around 10Z Sunday morning, near the Platte River in eastern Nebraska, however confidence in the timing and location of the second round remains low at this time. After the storms move out, MVFR to IFR ceilings may move into parts of eastern Nebraska, potentially impacting all three TAF sites through the remainder of the morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kern AVIATION...KG