314
FXUS63 KOAX 070447
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1147 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible Friday evening through early
  Saturday. Hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

- The first "hot" weather of the season looks increasingly
  likely late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A sunny afternoon for the entire Corn Belt had me zooming out to
find a couple of isolated clouds south of the KC metro. Temps
this afternoon have outperformed the previous forecast by a
couple of degrees with most locations peaking near 80 to 83F.

Breezy northwesterly winds are gusting up to 35 mph at times but
are forecast to slow this evening and become light and variable
overnight under a surface high.

.FRIDAY...

High to mid-level clouds begin building into the area Friday
morning along a developing warm front pushing in from the west.
Dewpoints, mostly in the 30s now, will begin climbing overnight
as the light and variable winds get their groove back and become
southerly tomorrow. By mid-day Friday, the warm front will be
in eastern Nebraska - draped north to south - and dewpoints will
be closer to 50F before they peak near 60 in the afternoon and
evening, especially south of the Platte River. High temps along
the SD state line will peak near 80 with 90 possible along
Nebraska`s southern border.

Hodographs reveal significant shear of 50 knots throughout the
day. Southerly surface flow develops under westerly 700hPa flow
and northwesterly 500hPa flow. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg should
be sufficient for supercell development. North central Nebraska
may see upscale growth of an MCS that later pushes into this
CWA. With shear vectors almost entirely in the same direction of
motion of this prospective MCS, it would become outflow
dominant quickly. It may still pose a wind threat, but the
tornado threat with this second round of storms will be near
zero. In eastern Nebraska, we may be impacted by both the MCS
and the chance of supercells earlier in the afternoon and
evening especially on the nose of the developing LLJ and near
the warm front. The tornado threat will be highest in the
vicinity of the eastward moving warm front.

Weaker convection may continue through sunrise along the KS
state line.

.THE WEEKEND....

Saturday will be cooler with highs mostly in the upper 70s with
northwesterly flow of 10-20 mph. Sunday will be a near repeat.
Both days will be dry with a chance of scattered convection
along the cold front slipping through Kansas. Scattered PoPs
have been maintained along the state line.

The next best chance of convection (30%) will come on Tuesday
with the passage of a weak cold front pushing through the
increasingly humid atmosphere.

Southerly flow returns on Wednesday and Thursday and temps are
likely to push past 90F for the first time for many. (NBM
probability of hitting 90F in Omaha on Thursday is 78%). That`s
a full month behind the thirty year average and the second
latest date in the past 30 years (6/16 vs 6/17/2009) for the
city.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Calm winds (less than 5 knots) will become south/southeasterly,
increasing to 10-15 knots by 17Z. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Nebraska
(all TAF sites) by 22Z and slowly move to the east. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorms will dive southeast across
eastern Nebraska bringing the potential for severe hail and
damaging winds up to 60 knots at all TAF sites sometime between
22Z and 03Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
linger through the end of the forecast period across southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa (KLNK and KOMA). The general time
frame for thunderstorm potential has been delineated using a -RA
FM group in TAFs. As this gets closer, will likely be converted
to a convectively driven TEMPO as timing becomes more certain.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Darrah