167
FXUS63 KOAX 092317
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
617 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nice weather continues for Monday with highs in the lower
  80s, light winds, and ample sunshine.

- There is a chance for showers Tuesday, but better chances for
  storms arrive by late Wednesday or Thursday.

- Thursday looks to be one of the warmest days of the year, with
  heat index approaching 100 especially over southern parts of
  the area.

- A stormy mid-June weather pattern will settle in by late this
  week into next week...with several opportunities for strong to
  severe storms late this week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

High pressure remains in place over the Northern Plains. The
pleasant afternoon of weather is only clear to me via the obs
showing temps near 80 and dewpoints mostly in the 40s. This
federal building`s small windows are supplemented by NDOT
highway cameras that reveal mostly clear skies, green grass, and
creeks and streams running near or above normal streamflow.

If you enjoyed the weather of Sunday, Monday`s forecast should
be welcomed with temperatures climbing only by a couple of
degrees warmer thanks to the continued sunshine and developing
southerly flow. Weak cold-air advection will turn to weak WAA.
It`ll be another dry one.

.TUESDAY...

Tuesday brings a chance of precipitation, but it`s impacts look
minimal. A weakening cold front will wash out as it moves
south and into the area. Monday`s southerly flow will have
increased the amount of BL moisture available for Tuesday, but
the front won`t be producing much forcing for ascent.


.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

The kinematics and thermodynamics look better for both Wednesday
and Thursday as the area is forecast to be in the warm sector as
the washed out front retreats north and moist southerly flow
develops. Mid- range models are generally in agreement with
significant CAPE and a middling amount of shear available in
the warm sector. Organized convection is expected. GEFS has
probability of SBCAPE > 1000J/kg at about 100% for Wednesday and
maybe 70% for this area on Thursday with some uncertainty as to
the placement of the cold front progged to push through the hot
and humid airmass on Thursday. Already, SPC has ominous 15%
yellow blobs drawn over parts of the area for both days.

Both Wednesday and Thursday bring increasing likelihood of
finally breaching the 90F mark in Omaha and Norfolk. NBM
probabilities suggest the chance for hitting 90 is 74% chance
each day... so the chance of hitting it at least once is
currently 93%. It`ll be the warmest day of the year with peak
apparent temps pushing into the mid to upper-90s for areas south
of I-80.

.BEYOND...

By next weekend, the area will be on the receiving end of
zonal/southwesterly flow with mid-range global models all
indicating shortwaves passing through the mid-Missouri River
valley on Saturday night and again on Sunday night. June`s
reputation for severe weather will not be diminished in 2024.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions through the period with winds less than 12 knots.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald