Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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335 FXUS63 KOAX 080843 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 343 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and perhaps a storm this afternoon in northeast Nebraska and west central Iowa, spreading into southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa this evening. - Very pleasant weather expected for Sunday and Monday with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and plenty of sunshine. - Getting warmer by the second half of next week with a few chances for thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A zonal to slightly northwesterly flow pattern is set up overhead early Saturday morning. A cool front was dropping into northeast Nebraska and will continue moving south this morning. The short wave trough that helped kick off Friday`s thunderstorm activity has moved off to the east while the remnant MCS pushes southeast over Missouri. Another weak short wave trough is crossing Wyoming this morning with showers and a few storms embedded. Looking back, Friday`s storms were indeed quite intense, but the primary axis of severe wind/hail was on the western edges of the forecast area and mainly focused in central NE down into KS. Moving into today, the cool front will move through the entire forecast area this morning with a northerly breeze and some cold advection. Should see a good amount of sunshine, bringing temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80 by this afternoon. However, the incoming short wave trough from WY will eventually bring increasing mid level clouds, scattered showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm. It appears that the best chance for this this afternoon will be in a band stretching across northeast Nebraska and into west central IA, where the mid level frontogenesis aligns with the better forcing from the wave and allows a bit stronger vertical motion. Don`t expect a lot in the way of precipitation, but some locations will have off and on shower potential for several hours this afternoon. As we get into the evening, another MCS will develop across KS, with the northern fringes of precipitation perhaps extending into far southern parts of the forecast area. Sunday features high pressure with northerly winds and mostly sunny skies. The surface high will shift slightly east by Monday with a gradual change to a southerly breeze. Ample sunshine, relatively light winds, and temperatures in the 70s to around 80 will make Sunday and Monday pretty darn beautiful in terms of June weather. As we get into Tuesday, the upper trough over the east shifts farther east yet, while the west coast into northern and central Plains features a more zonal flow pattern. Within this zonal flow, there is good model agreement in a short wave trough crossing the northern Plains late Monday, and another by Wednesday into early Thursday. Each of these will bring low-end chances for precipitation. The initial one will have little to not instability to work with and doesn`t look like much of a weather producer. The second, later in the week, should have time to bring some decent boundary layer moisture northward and there is a strong signal that a frontal boundary will lay out across the general area. This could provide a setup for a round of strong to severe storms, but plenty of details to work out between now and Wed night/Thurs to get to that point. The warm sector south of the front should also be quite warm, and expect to see some 90s by middle to late next week. Friday into Saturday becomes potentially more interesting as a western CONUS trough begins to take shape, and appears likely to kick out the closed low off of Baja all week as a negatively tilted trough into the central Plains...then kicks additional energy into the Plains for the weekend. Once again...lots of details to work out, but this type of system in mid June is worth keeping an eye on. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Rain has come to an end at TAF sites and winds have stabilized, becoming light. Do expect some scattered to broken clouds to build over all TAF sites in the next 3-9 hours, but the persistence of those ceilings is uncertain. If they develop, likely to be in the low end MVFR range or possibly into IFR. Best chance for a few hours of BKN cigs appears to be at LNK just after sunrise. Also have a chance of showers at all sites later in the TAF period, with best chance for off and on showers at OFK, but may need to add into LNK and OMA in later TAF issuances. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Barjenbruch