Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
160 FXUS63 KOAX 060805 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 305 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Overnight showers and storms possible Friday night - early Saturday. A few storms could become strong to severe. - Mostly dry through the weekend with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Today and Friday... Skies remained mostly clear overnight as temperatures settled into the 50s and 60s by 2 AM. A few showers and storms may begin to develop along boundary draped from south-central Nebraska into northeast Kansas early this morning. While these showers could clip the southwestern edge of our CWA this morning, precipitation will have to contend with dry air near the surface. Any showers that may develop would be short-lived, with the vast majority of the forecast area remaining dry for at least the next 24 hours. Temperatures this afternoon will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. Northwest winds will remain breezy today, at 10 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 25-35 mph. High pressure stationed over the southwestern CONUS will keep northwesterly flow in place over the Central Plains through the end of the week. A shortwave rippling through the upper level flow will bring us a chance for rain Friday afternoon through Friday night. Notably, a couple of the more recent CAM runs produce a few stronger storms within the high sheer/low CAPE environment, which could skirt along our far western counties, with a potential MCS pushing through southeast Nebraska. Hail and strong winds will likely be the main threats, however clockwise turning hodographs/southeasterly backed surface winds suggest at least some tornado potential over our southwestern counties. Accordingly, we have been placed in a Marginal Risk by SPC, with a Slight reaching into southeast Nebraska. Current guidance suggests precipitation amounts around 0.10-0.50", with the best chance for locally higher amounts over southeast Nebraska. Saturday and Beyond... Precipitation will diminish Saturday morning and early afternoon, with pleasant weather expected through the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will remain in the mid 70s to low 80s through Monday. By Tuesday, models continue to show a low pressure system dropping south out of Canada, breaking down the ridge and bringing rain chances back into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Winds will prevail west/northwesterly at all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period. Wind speeds tonight around 5 knots will increase to 10 to 15 knots by 17Z. An occasional gust up to 35 knots will be possible north of US-30 (KOFK) between 17Z and 23Z, though the more frequent/persistent gusts will be on the order of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will begin to die back down after 00Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through 06Z tomorrow. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...Darrah