688
FXUS63 KOAX 041902
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
202 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances this afternoon (50-80%) with a 15-20% chance of
  severe storms, mainly in southeast Nebraska and southwest
  Iowa. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

- Saturated soils continue to keep flooding a concern as showers
  and storms move through northeast Nebraska this afternoon.

- Mostly dry Wednesday into the weekend with highs in the mid
  70s to mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

This afternoon - tonight:

The front is starting to push east across our area this
afternoon with showers moving into eastern Nebraska. Cloud cover
is making storm development difficult along the frontal
boundary, but we could still see storms develop this afternoon,
especially as the front moves closer to Omaha where the air
mass is more unstable. VAD profiles show what the models have
been suggesting, environmental shear is very limited indicating
a low potential for long-lived severe threat with any storms,
but we could see damaging winds and hail up to quarter-size with
any stronger storms that develop. WPC has southwestern Iowa in a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, due to PWAT values in excess
of 1.5 inches, and this could be worrisome if we get any storms
that develop ahead of the front that are slow moving. Storms
along the front should move pretty well, so though they could be
efficient rain-producers and put down a quick half-inch of
rain, they shouldn`t linger over one area for long.

Once storms move out of the area by 8 PM this evening, skies
will be clearing and winds will shift to northwesterly. We`ll
see temperatures drop down into the low-to-mid 50s overnight
tonight.

Rest of the Forecast:

Our upper-level pattern transitions into a rex block pattern
across the western CONUS, with a stationary ridge over the
Inter-Mountain West setting up a northwesterly flow pattern
across Nebraska and the Missouri River Valley. A strong jet
streak setting up over Nebraska will help reinforce this
northwesterly flow aloft. Northwesterly flow brings in a drier,
regime, which will bring some relief to areas of northeast
Nebraska that have been hit time and time again with heavy rain
and have been looking for some time to just dry out. Other areas
that haven`t seen quite as much rain probably aren`t as excited,
but may be happy to hear that this pattern isn`t very conducive
for severe weather. This pattern appears likely to hang around
through at least the weekend.

Wednesday - Thursday:

Wednesday we see the development of the northwesterly flow
pattern which will bring dew points down into the low 50s for
Wednesday and 40s on Thursday. This reflects the drier air mass
moving into the region. Highs on Wednesday will be a bit warmer
in the mid-to-upper 80s as the ridge nudges in before the
northwesterly winds really ramps up at the surface bringing in
the milder temperatures on Thursday. Thursday we see highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

Friday - Monday:
Friday during the day should be another mild, dry day with highs
in the low-to-mid 80s. Models bring a weak shortwave down the
east side of the upper-level ridge developing a weak surface Low
that moves through Kansas on Friday evening. Some ensemble
members bring shower and storm chances to our area with this
disturbance, but we`re really going to struggle to get enough
moisture for showers and storms to develop, much less for
anything to be significant overnight. I wouldn`t get that
excited about storm chances just yet. Right now precip chances
around 20-30% seem about right.

We dry back out by Saturday morning with clearing skies.
Northwesterly flow will keep temperatures mild Saturday
afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Sunday looks
to stay dry and mild as well with highs in the upper 70s to low
80s. Our next chance of showers and storms won`t be until Monday
afternoon and evening when synoptic models suggest the blocking
pattern may break down allowing a trough to move through again.
This could bring back a more widespread chance for rain.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

We have a line of storms forecast to move across the area this
afternoon, though significant cloud cover over the region of
development appears to be hampering the environment where they
are expected to develop. Confidence for storm development has
lowered a bit, but still expect around a 60-70% chance of
thunderstorms to move through the terminals between 19-23Z this
afternoon. Expect winds to start to shift to northwesterly ahead
of storm arrival, with a full shift to northwesterly behind the
storms by 00Z. Skies will clear out behind the storms tonight
with winds becoming lighter to around 5 kt overnight. By
daybreak on Wednesday we`ll see winds shift to south or
southwesterly then start to increase towards Wednesday
afternoon, but VFR conditions should prevail under mostly clear
skies.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy