970
FXUS63 KOAX 081712
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1212 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and perhaps a storm this afternoon in
  northeast Nebraska and west central Iowa, spreading into
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa this evening.

- Very pleasant weather expected for Sunday and Monday with
  highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and plenty of sunshine.

- Getting warmer by the second half of next week with a few
  chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A zonal to slightly northwesterly flow pattern is set up
overhead early Saturday morning. A cool front was dropping into
northeast Nebraska and will continue moving south this morning. The
short wave trough that helped kick off Friday`s thunderstorm
activity has moved off to the east while the remnant MCS pushes
southeast over Missouri. Another weak short wave trough is
crossing Wyoming this morning with showers and a few storms
embedded. Looking back, Friday`s storms were indeed quite
intense, but the primary axis of severe wind/hail was on the
western edges of the forecast area and mainly focused in central
NE down into KS.

Moving into today, the cool front will move through the entire
forecast area this morning with a northerly breeze and some cold
advection. Should see a good amount of sunshine, bringing
temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80 by this afternoon.
However, the incoming short wave trough from WY will eventually
bring increasing mid level clouds, scattered showers, and
perhaps a thunderstorm. It appears that the best chance for this
this afternoon will be in a band stretching across northeast
Nebraska and into west central IA, where the mid level
frontogenesis aligns with the better forcing from the wave and
allows a bit stronger vertical motion. Don`t expect a lot in the
way of precipitation, but some locations will have off and on
shower potential for several hours this afternoon. As we get
into the evening, another MCS will develop across KS, with the
northern fringes of precipitation perhaps extending into far
southern parts of the forecast area.

Sunday features high pressure with northerly winds and mostly
sunny skies. The surface high will shift slightly east by Monday
with a gradual change to a southerly breeze. Ample sunshine,
relatively light winds, and temperatures in the 70s to around 80
will make Sunday and Monday pretty darn beautiful in terms of
June weather.

As we get into Tuesday, the upper trough over the east shifts
farther east yet, while the west coast into northern and central
Plains features a more zonal flow pattern. Within this zonal
flow, there is good model agreement in a short wave trough
crossing the northern Plains late Monday, and another by
Wednesday into early Thursday. Each of these will bring low-end
chances for precipitation. The initial one will have little to
not instability to work with and doesn`t look like much of a
weather producer. The second, later in the week, should have
time to bring some decent boundary layer moisture northward and
there is a strong signal that a frontal boundary will lay out
across the general area. This could provide a setup for a round
of strong to severe storms, but plenty of details to work out
between now and Wed night/Thurs to get to that point. The warm
sector south of the front should also be quite warm, and expect
to see some 90s by middle to late next week. Friday into
Saturday becomes potentially more interesting as a western CONUS
trough begins to take shape, and appears likely to kick out the
closed low off of Baja all week as a negatively tilted trough
into the central Plains...then kicks additional energy into the
Plains for the weekend. Once again...lots of details to work
out, but this type of system in mid June is worth keeping an eye
on.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Chance of showers is the primary concern with this TAF forecast.
Have maintained their mention at all three sites, but confidence
has slipped. Believe chance is closer to 25-30% for any
measurable precip. Have narrowed the windows of possible precip
as those showers slip south over the course of the afternoon and
evening. VFR conditions prevail through it all with northerly
winds gusting to 20 knots this afternoon and becoming light
overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Nicolaisen