859
FXUS64 KOHX 091723
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

After some overnight showers and storms, including a few strong
storms with gusty winds west half, it has been a quiet and mostly
rain-free mid morning for Middle TN. But, that will change as
more clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms move in from
the northwest. At this point, instability is unimpressive and
mostly elevated above the surface, so any storms over the next
couple of hours will feature just occasional lightning and
downpours. As we get into mid to late afternoon, instability will
increase, especially along and south of I-40 where surface based
capes are expected to climb to 1500-2500 J/kg with 40-50KT mid
level winds. This will result in some strong or briefly severe
storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and very heavy
downpours. Passage of a cold front from north to south will shut
off rain chances for areas north of I-40 by 8 PM, and across
southern areas by midnight.

Later tonight, drier and cooler air with a high pressure system
from Canada will start to move in. There will be enough residual
moisture for patchy fog through daybreak.

Monday will be a very fine day with sunshine, lower humidity and
below normal temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Blue skies, dry
air, and bright sun means lots of UV, so protect yourself
outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Surface high pressure with northwest flow aloft will let us enjoy
some especially beautiful and low humidity conditions through
Tuesday. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal for
morning lows and afternoon highs.

We knew it would come, and by midweek real summertime wx will be
knocking on the door. Northwest flow aloft will weaken and give
way to a building upper level ridge. Temperatures and humidty
levels will climb, and we can expect hot and humid conditons to
take hold by the weekend.

Through this week, a stray pop-up shower or storm cannot be ruled
out, particularly late week when humidity creeps up. But for the
most part, models show the dry air and strong ridge suppressing
any significant rain chances. This drier trend is not expected to
stay locked in as extended models show an influx of tropical air
for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers will impact the terminals through the afternoon before
ending from NW/SE. A storm cannot be ruled out at BNA/MQY so VCTS
was included. As the surface front moves through the terminals,
MVFR cigs will clear allowing conditions to improve to VFR. A
period of fog is possible near dawn at CSV/SRB. Winds will be out
of the NW/WNW below 10 kts for the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      60  82  57  81 /  40   0   0   0
Clarksville    57  79  54  78 /  30   0   0   0
Crossville     55  75  51  75 /  30   0   0   0
Columbia       59  82  55  81 /  50   0   0   0
Cookeville     56  77  53  76 /  30   0   0   0
Jamestown      55  75  50  75 /  20   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   59  81  55  79 /  50   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   59  82  55  80 /  40   0   0   0
Waverly        57  80  55  79 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Reagan