278
FXUS64 KOHX 091123
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing just off to the west of the
mid state, with a line of severe thunderstorms working their way
eastward. Latest analysis shows instability falling off as the
storms move east, with not too much over the mid state currently,
so the storms should continue to weaken and be sub severe before
crossing the TN River. Will continue to monitor instability
trends just in case these storms try and hold together. CAMs have
this first wave of convection weakening and diving southeastward,
so expect some showers and storms for the east and south during
the morning hours. A break in more scattered convection looks to
occur during the mid to late morning, with more isolated showers
and a storm or two, before the next round moves in this afternoon.

Existing boundary over the region will sink southward during the
afternoon, allowing for more showers and thunderstorms to develop.
Southwest flow to the south of the front will bring additional
heat and moisture to the mid state, increasing instability. Deep
layer shear will remain strong, especially with a shortwave
trough moving through during the day. This will allow for some
strong to severe storms to develop during the afternoon, with the
main threat being damaging wind gusts. However, PWAT values will
be high, allowing for heavy rain and a potential flooding threat
especially with any stronger storms training over localized areas
this afternoon. Showers and storms should continue southward with
the front and be out of the mid state around midnight or so.

A drier period moves in after that to start the week, with a
Midwest trough swinging southward Monday but looking dry at the
moment. CAA will keep high temps in the mid 70s to around 80 on
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Ridging looks to work its way in for the remainder of the
week, with a warming trend through the week as well. Afternoon
showers and storms may work their way back into the forecast
Thursday into the weekend, but high temps will be in the low 90s
Thursday through Sunday. Long term ensembles suggest a Plains
trough could move in later on Sunday into early next week, along
with remnants of a tropical low from the Gulf, so the drier period
looks to only be in place for this week. Either way, it looks like
the heat of summer will finally arrive later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

MVFR cigs are expected to spread across the area this morning and
into the afternoon. Isolated showers are possible this morning
before becoming more scattered in coverage after 17Z. Visibilities
may lower at times during periods of heavier rain. Otherwise, W/SW
winds will become N/NW this afternoon behind a front. Improvement
back to VFR is possible after 00Z once rain chances diminish.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  60  80  56 /  70  20   0   0
Clarksville    78  57  79  54 /  60  20   0   0
Crossville     76  54  75  51 /  70  20   0   0
Columbia       83  59  81  55 /  60  20   0   0
Cookeville     77  56  76  52 /  70  20   0   0
Jamestown      76  55  75  50 /  60  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   83  59  80  55 /  60  20   0   0
Murfreesboro   82  59  81  54 /  70  20   0   0
Waverly        79  57  80  55 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Clements