092
FXUS64 KOHX 090541
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Rain-free conditions continuing this evening as a pleasant night
will remain through roughly midnight. After that time frame, the
complex of storms currently across Missouri will continue its
southeast trek for Middle Tennessee bringing showers and
thunderstorms during the very early morning hours. Instability
parameters continue to look fairly weak although a few wind gusts
above 30mph are not out of the question. However for the most
part, think these will just be noise makers overnight.

Once that complex moves out after sunrise, the continued
northwest flow pattern will keep showers and some thunderstorms
continuously moving through the area for a good chunk of the day
on Sunday before the front clears the area Sunday evening bringing
dry conditions. With back to back areas of thunderstorms
impacting Middle Tennessee, just do not think the atmosphere will
recover enough for that 2nd round to produce severe weather.
Lightning, heavy rainfall, and a few wind gusts will be the main
concerns on Sunday through roughly 7pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Conditions are pretty much as expected today with showers moving
in from the northwest and mostly dissipating as they run into drier
and more stable air in place over Middle Tennessee. A few spots
may pick up a few raindrops over the next few hours, but for the
most part we will see just some patches of mid level clouds.
These clouds will be thick enough to impact temps. More sunny
area will reach the mid 80s, but cloudier locations like our
northwest counties will be held to the lower 80s.

Rain-free conditions and partly cloudy skies will be in place for
most areas through midnight. After that, rain chances will
increase significantly late night into Sunday morning as the next
disturbance in northwest flow aloft brings numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms. The greatest coverage of rainfall will be
located across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. A
few of the storms could contain gusty winds of 30 to maybe 40 mph,
but we are not looking for severe weather given the very weak
instability. The bulk of the showers and storms will move out of
the area by midday Sunday, but additional scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form in the afternoon as a cold front drops into
the area. The afternoon storms could pack a little more punch with
local downpours and gusty winds as more instability will be
available. Still, we are not expecting a significant severe wx
threat. The cold front will sink southward Sunday evening,
shutting off rain chances from north to south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The forecast for next week continues to look unusually quiet for
mid-June due to a building upper level ridge across the southern
states. We cannot rule out a few storms here and there through
the week as some minor impulses cross the region. But overall the
week will be drier than normal. The workweek will start out
cooler and less humid than normal thanks to Sunday evening`s cold
front passage. After that, it will warm up each day, and by next
weekend we will reach full summer mode with hot and humid
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Current VFR conditions will decrease to MVFR/IFR at times after
07Z as rain moves from west to east through early morning. MVFR
cigs are expected to continue through mid-Sunday afternoon as
additional rain showers track across the area. Visibilities may
lower at times during periods of heavier rain. W/SW winds will
become N/NW after 18Z. Improvement back to VFR is possible after
00Z when rain chances come to an end.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  60  80  56 /  70  20   0   0
Clarksville    78  57  79  54 /  60  20   0   0
Crossville     76  54  75  51 /  80  30   0   0
Columbia       83  59  81  55 /  70  40   0   0
Cookeville     77  56  76  52 /  70  20   0   0
Jamestown      76  55  75  50 /  70  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   83  59  80  55 /  70  40   0   0
Murfreesboro   82  59  81  54 /  80  30   0   0
Waverly        79  57  80  55 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Hurley
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Clements