654
FXUS64 KOHX 090134 AAB
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
834 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Rain-free conditions continuing this evening as a pleasant night
will remain through roughly midnight. After that time frame, the
complex of storms currently across Missouri will continue its
southeast trek for Middle Tennessee bringing showers and
thunderstorms during the very early morning hours. Instability
parameters continue to look fairly weak although a few wind gusts
above 30mph are not out of the question. However for the most
part, think these will just be noise makers overnight.

Once that complex moves out after sunrise, the continued
northwest flow pattern will keep showers and some thunderstorms
continuously moving through the area for a good chunk of the day
on Sunday before the front clears the area Sunday evening bringing
dry conditions. With back to back areas of thunderstorms
impacting Middle Tennessee, just do not think the atmosphere will
recover enough for that 2nd round to produce severe weather.
Lightning, heavy rainfall, and a few wind gusts will be the main
concerns on Sunday through roughly 7pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Conditions are pretty much as expected today with showers moving
in from the northwest and mostly dissipating as they run into drier
and more stable air in place over Middle Tennessee. A few spots
may pick up a few raindrops over the next few hours, but for the
most part we will see just some patches of mid level clouds.
These clouds will be thick enough to impact temps. More sunny
area will reach the mid 80s, but cloudier locations like our
northwest counties will be held to the lower 80s.

Rain-free conditions and partly cloudy skies will be in place for
most areas through midnight. After that, rain chances will
increase significantly late night into Sunday morning as the next
disturbance in northwest flow aloft brings numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms. The greatest coverage of rainfall will be
located across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. A
few of the storms could contain gusty winds of 30 to maybe 40 mph,
but we are not looking for severe weather given the very weak
instability. The bulk of the showers and storms will move out of
the area by midday Sunday, but additional scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form in the afternoon as a cold front drops into
the area. The afternoon storms could pack a little more punch with
local downpours and gusty winds as more instability will be
available. Still, we are not expecting a significant severe wx
threat. The cold front will sink southward Sunday evening,
shutting off rain chances from north to south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The forecast for next week continues to look unusually quiet for
mid-June due to a building upper level ridge across the southern
states. We cannot rule out a few storms here and there through
the week as some minor impulses cross the region. But overall the
week will be drier than normal. The workweek will start out
cooler and less humid than normal thanks to Sunday evening`s cold
front passage. After that, it will warm up each day, and by next
weekend we will reach full summer mode with hot and humid
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Several admendments probable after 09/08Z per wx element
fluctuations. Addressed best chance of periodic tstms in TEMPO
groups, although tstms could occur outside time intervals. Initial
VFR ceilings will become MVFR after 09/08Z. Sfc winds will slowly
veer SW to NW thru 09/24Z but generally remain below 10kts. VFR
vsbys should prevail/MVFR vsbys during tstms periods. Addressed
shwr chances after 09/18Z with vcnty shwr remarks per expected
areal convection coverage decrease.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  81  60  81 /  70  70  20   0
Clarksville    69  78  58  79 /  70  60  10   0
Crossville     64  76  55  75 /  50  80  30   0
Columbia       69  84  60  81 /  60  70  30   0
Cookeville     66  77  56  76 /  50  70  30   0
Jamestown      64  75  55  75 /  40  70  20   0
Lawrenceburg   68  83  60  80 /  60  70  40   0
Murfreesboro   69  83  59  81 /  70  70  30   0
Waverly        68  80  58  80 /  80  60  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Hurley
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright