779
FXUS64 KOHX 061346
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
846 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

As of 830 AM CDT, a mostly cloudy and muggy morning continued
across Middle Tennessee. A few showers were noted from the Upper
Cumberland back to the Murfreesboro area, along a pre-frontal
surface trough. As this trough continues to move southeastward, it
will sweep rain chances completely out of our area by mid afternoon.
Still, very warm and humid air will remain in place. Partly to
mostly sunny skies this afternoon will allow temps to warm well
into the 80s to around 90. A more pronounced surface cold front
will start to bring drier air later this afternoon, and that trend
will continue with much cooler and less humid conditions for
Friday.

A quick morning update was issued to freshen trends, but no major
forecast changes were needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Warm and very humid night across Middle Tennessee with current
temperatures/dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Just a few
showers across the area on radar currently, but CAMs such as the
HRRR indicate additional showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
should pop up later this morning across our eastern half before
moving out during the afternoon. Despite this precip, today looks
quite warm with highs well into the 80s areawide. A cold front
will push through the midstate tonight with a few showers
possible along the front, before a much drier and cooler airmass
arrives behind the boundary. Friday looks spectacular for early
June with highs only in the mid 70s to low 80s, comfortable
humidity with low dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, and no rain in
sight. Friday night looks equally nice with the low dewpoints
allowing min temps to drop into the 50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

For Saturday, models continue to indicate a MCS across Missouri
will make a run at us during the day. However, it will run into
the dry and stable airmass in place over our region, and is
anticipated to fall apart before or as it reaches or northwest
counties. Main question is how far any precip with the MCS will
penetrate into Middle Tennessee before it dissipates, but model
consensus has only slight pops in our northwest for now. Another
cold front will sink southward from the Midwest on Saturday
night, with another loosely organized MCS shown to develop in
southern Missouri then move across the midstate during the day on
Sunday. This MCS should survive through our area thanks to deeper
moisture, a stronger shortwave aloft, and the incoming frontal
boundary focus, so expect fairly widespread showers and storms
during the day on Sunday with high chance to likely pops. Forecast
soundings do not show much instability and only weak shear on
Sunday, so strong to severe storm threat looks very low attm.

00Z GFS/ECMWF show rain moving out of the midstate Sunday night,
but will keep some slight chance pops into Monday until the front
fully clears us to the south. Northwest flow aloft and a building
upper level ridge looks to bring us a warming trend and lengthy
dry period for the rest of the forecast period, with highs
creeping back up to the 90 degree mark by Thursday. Models
continue to suggest a tropical system could develop in the Gulf
of Mexico by next weekend, but even if it does weak steering
currents aloft and main polar jet stream near the Canadian border
should keep any impacts to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Light rain showers or sprinkles will push east early, with minimal
impact at BNA, MQY, SRB, and CSV. Winds will continue to shift to
the northwest with some isolated gusts to near 15kts possible this
afternoon. Overnight, winds will be come light and will need to
monitor for possible VIS restrictions late.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  62  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    87  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     81  55  75  53 /  50   0   0   0
Columbia       89  60  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     84  56  77  56 /  40   0   0   0
Jamestown      82  55  76  53 /  50   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   88  60  82  58 /  20   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   89  59  83  57 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        88  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....05