556
FXUS64 KOHX 181721
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1221 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Showers and storms have moved into the southwestern part of the
CWA over the last hour with more development further north.
Looking at obs, a weak mesolow is centered near the TN/MS border.
CAMS have the mesolow moving east through the afternoon hours. The
focus of showers and storms should be in the south this afternoon
with more scattered activity along and north of I-40. A couple
strong storms are possible mainly south of I-40 through the
afternoon. Currently instability values are around 600-850 J/kg of
MLCAPE with the CAMs increasing those values to 1200-1400 J/kg
this afternoon ahead of the mesolow in the south. Shear is
outracing the lift, so any tall updrafts will not be able to
sustain themselves. Some small hail will be possible along with
some gusty winds in the strongest cells. Heavy rain will also be
possible across the area today especially in the south where PWAT
values will be around 1.4-1.6". MRMS 1 hr QPF accumulations show
some pockets of 1-2" over Wayne County recently. These types of
rain amounts will be possible farther east.

As we lose diurnal influences and the 500 mb trough axis slides
east, shower coverage will decrease after 00z. Sky coverage will
decrease west of the plateau with very light north wind. Patches
of fog could develop after midnight. Once we scour out any fog
Sunday morning, temperatures will be on the increase. Upper
ridging will build in from the west and highs should top out in
the 80s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The start of the extended forecast will see a continuation of
warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s from Monday
through Wednesday. A cold front will try to approach the Mid South
on Wednesday but will lose its eastern momentum as the parent low
lifts out of the central plains toward Ontario. The surface
boundary will get close enough for shower and storm chances to be
reintroduced Wednesday night but more so on Thursday. The surface
front looks like it will linger in vicinity of the area which
will keep rain chances elevated on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Area radar trends indicate convection is spreading across Middle
Tennessee, and will persist through into the evening hours. Right
now, TAF locations along and south of I-40 have the best chance
of being impacted, particularly in the 20Z to 24Z time frame.
After 00Z, conditions will clear out with light northerly winds.
Will need to monitor for fog development late especially if
rainfall was recorded, but right now MVFR VIS will be likely at
CKV, SRB, and CSV due to slightly higher sfc dewpoints.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  86  63  88 /  20   0   0  10
Clarksville    61  85  61  86 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     58  79  57  80 /  30  10   0  20
Columbia       61  85  60  86 /  30   0   0  10
Cookeville     60  80  59  82 /  30  10   0  10
Jamestown      58  80  57  82 /  40  10   0  10
Lawrenceburg   61  83  61  85 /  30   0   0  10
Murfreesboro   61  85  60  87 /  30   0   0  10
Waverly        61  85  62  87 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....05