Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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458 FXUS64 KOHX 140138 AAA AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 838 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 837 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, sky condition, and wind speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously forecasted late evening gridded values. Current regional temperature trends continue to support forecasted overnight low temperature values. Although a little more PW than this time yesterday noted in KOHX 14/00Z Sounding, around seasonal normal values now, and an increase in derived atmospheric indicies values also noted, current surface riding influences along with building upper level riding influences from our southwest, will continue to keep "A Cap on Things" with minimal cloudiness and no convection/rainfall expected through remainder of tonight. Some patchy fog continues to be possible mainly near bodies of water as remainder of nighttime hours progress. Otherwise, current forecast continues to be on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 We have a pretty decent day going on across Middle TN right now. Temps have climbed into the 80s for almost everyone and without a southerly boundary layer flow, some mixing is occuring. This is helping to drop dew points in a few spots and relaxing RH values. Take advantage. This isn`t going to be the case moving forward into the weekend. In the short term, look for some fog development tonight, especially near bodies of water. I don`t think we`re going to need a dense fog advisory, but just know visibilities could drop off quickly near lakes and rivers during your morning commute tomorrow. After any fog dissipates, we`re looking another decent day with afternoon highs in the low 90s, like today. Models continue to push an unseasonal front through the region during the day tomorrow, but it still looks to wash out before it can cause any rain chances here across the mid- state. The most likely result from the frontal passage is afternoon highs a degree or two cooler Saturday than we`ll see today or tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 By the end of the weekend, upper level ridging will re-assert itself across the eastern half of the US. This is going spike afternoon highs here in Middle TN. Chances of reaching triple digit air temperatures aren`t looking great, but highs in the upper 90s coupled with dew points in the upper 60s is likely going to push a few areas in triple digit Heat Index values on Sunday. With the ridge in place, I think rain chances will be very, very small Sunday, but as the ridge pushes east on Monday, we could see enough height falls to create a chance of isolated to scattered afternoon storms. If this occurs, these will fall into the typical summertime thunderstorm category -- heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible. Beyond Monday, rain chances fall off once again, but afternoon temperatures look to remain in the low 90s as summer heat starts to take hold across the area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions continue this taf cycle. Winds will continue to lessen and eventually go light into the overnight hours. Patchy dense fog is possible overnight mainly at SRB and CSV. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 94 70 92 / 0 10 0 0 Clarksville 64 91 67 90 / 0 10 0 0 Crossville 63 87 64 86 / 0 10 0 0 Columbia 65 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 66 89 66 87 / 0 10 10 0 Jamestown 64 87 64 85 / 0 10 10 0 Lawrenceburg 66 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 66 94 68 93 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 65 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......JB Wright SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Baggett