626
FXUS64 KOHX 170518
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1218 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the center of a strong
high pressure system to our east. This eastward shift has allowed
surface winds to become southerly, and temperatures are already
toasty late this morning with current readings in the upper-80s to
low-90s. These temperatures will continue to warm this afternoon,
eventually making it into the mid and upper-90s. While a couple
locations will get close, chances of hitting 100 remain low (10-30
percent) although it won`t feel like it with heat index values
around 100 to 104 degrees.

With an increase in moisture today, chances for afternoon
thunderstorms will also trend up. These pop-up thunderstorms will
be disorganized with severe thunderstorms not expected. However,
as is usually the case with summertime convection, any
thunderstorm may be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall,
gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Thunderstorm coverage will
diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

A very similar pattern sets up on Monday as the high pressure
remains centered to our east over the Carolinas. Temperatures will
again warm up into the mid-90s, and hit-and-miss thunderstorms
will develop in the afternoon before diminishing again after
sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Much of the upcoming week looks to be quiet with mainly the heat
to talk about. The strong high pressure becomes centered over the
mid-Atlantic states, but it will be strong enough to extinguish
our own precipitation chances for several days. Tuesday through at
least Thursday look rain-free with daily highs consistently
staying in the 90s. For our next chance of rain, we`ll have to
look ahead to next weekend as models are showing the possibility
of a weak disturbance off the eastern coast of Florida that may
track west-northwest into the southeastern US as the
aforementioned high moves back towards the south. Confidence is
low on if this develops and exact timing of any rain, but it`s
enough for low rain chances (20-40 percent) Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The upper high is expected to strengthen over the mid Atlantic
states through the taf period. Though there will be some afternoon
convection again today, the coverage should be a little less and
further west. As a result, will still include vcts for all of the
taf sites again this afternoon. Latest short term mods do not
support a tempo group for the CKV taf as most of the convection
should remain to the west.

Otherwise, look for southerly winds in the afternoon to approach
10kts. An overall increase in upper level cloudiness looks
possible on into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  75  94  73 /  30  10  10   0
Clarksville    91  73  91  71 /  40  20  10   0
Crossville     88  68  86  67 /  20  10   0   0
Columbia       92  72  92  71 /  30  10  10   0
Cookeville     90  72  89  69 /  20  10   0   0
Jamestown      90  70  88  68 /  20  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   91  72  90  71 /  30  10  10   0
Murfreesboro   94  73  93  72 /  20  10  10   0
Waverly        90  72  91  72 /  40  30  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....21