Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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768 FXUS64 KOHX 040649 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 149 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Quiet night across the mid state so far tonight after the isolated showers and thunderstorms brought heavy rain to some areas along with flooding. Areas that received rain overnight are more likely to have fog develop before sunrise, as well as areas near bodies of water. Surface temps are already at dewpoint temps as of this hour, with light winds, but high clouds are holding off more widespread fog for now. Ob sites across the area are showing visibilities dropping to around 3 to 6 miles currently, so keeping an eye on additional fog developing as well as visibility values dropping further. Plains trough and shortwave activity will be enough for some showers and thunderstorms to develop today, with one round moving through in the morning in the west. The cluster of showers and storms will continue eastward, with more isolated to scattered development possible during the afternoon. The stronger instability remains west of the Plateau, but deep layer shear is on the weaker side. Still, can not rule out some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms today, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts, some hail, and heavy rain leading to flooding. Should any storms impact areas that saw heavy rainfall yesterday, those areas will be more vulnerable to flash flooding today. PWAT values above 1.5 to near 1.8 inches looks likely, so the atmosphere has plenty of moisture, and with storm motions on the slower side, flooding remains a risk with any stronger storm that develops today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms look to remain possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, especially as we get closer to sunrise. The Plains trough will move into the Midwest, bringing the trough axis closer to the mid state by late morning Wednesday. Most CAMs develop scattered showers and storms especially in the southern and eastern portions of the area through late morning. In the afternoon, however, CAMs back off with scattered convection despite the strong instability and decent deep layer shear. PWAT values remain high, and higher than Tuesday in fact, so any storm that develops Wednesday will have the potential to put down heavy rainfall and increase the flooding risk. But, with stronger instability and shear, strong to severe storms will remain possible ahead of an approaching cold front in the afternoon and evening as well. Again with the CAMs backing off on convection Wednesday afternoon, confidence is not high enough to really nail down exact timing and locations of any potential strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon, but stay tuned for updates. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 113 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 After the front passes later on Wednesday, we are looking at cooler and drier weather. Some lingering showers and storms will be possible Wednesday night into the day Thursday, but after that we are looking drier through Sunday. A Midwest trough will keep northwest flow aloft over the mid state, so look for cooler temps as well, with highs Friday and Saturday in the low to mid 80s, and even upper 70s on the Plateau. Sunday looks to have a shortwave trough move through, but ensembles are not quite on board with exact timing just yet. Have chance pops in on Sunday for now. Models do agree that with a trough lingering over the Midwest early next week, cooler high temps in the low to mid 80s look to stick around through at least next Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Shwrs slowly move in from SW, spreading NEWD across area by 04/15Z. Uncertainties at terminal locations per shwrs areal coverage, confidence not there to mention prevailing, but certainly not rule in vcnty. Upper level distrubance moving W to E 04/12Z-04/21Z should enhance tstm chances. Mentioned best 2 hr window for coverage terminals. MVFR/IFR fog vsbys SRB/CSV thru 04/10Z with MVFR vsbys best 2 hr window for tstms. VFR ceiling prevail thru 04/06Z. Sustained S winds 5-10kts thru 04/06Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 85 71 84 68 / 80 70 70 40 Clarksville 83 71 81 65 / 70 70 70 20 Crossville 78 64 78 64 / 80 60 90 80 Columbia 84 69 84 67 / 80 70 70 40 Cookeville 81 66 79 66 / 80 60 90 70 Jamestown 80 65 79 64 / 80 60 80 70 Lawrenceburg 82 68 82 67 / 80 70 60 40 Murfreesboro 85 68 84 67 / 80 70 80 50 Waverly 83 69 82 66 / 70 70 70 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....JB Wright