007
FXUS64 KOHX 210748
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
248 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

We will get to enjoy another quiet day across Middle TN with a
ridge of high pressure off to our east. Highs will be warm once
again pushing into the upper 80s to some lower 90s. There is some
weak instability that builds over the Plateau in the afternoon and
that will bring some afternoon CU but the chances for a shower or
thunderstorms look very low.

As we head into Wednesday we will be moving into an unsettled
weather pattern that will stick with us into the weekend. A trough
and surface low will be working through the western Great Lakes
moving north into the Canada. This will set up a cold front to our
west with storms developing along it. The first round of storms
with it will push into our west late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. The front will still be off to the west and this line of
storms should weaken as it crosses the TN River. CAPE will be
elevated early Wednesday and will generally be under 500 j/kg. A
severe threat with this line is not expected and it will diminish
quickly as it pushes east after daybreak and should just be
showers by the time it reaches the Nashville area.

Things then look to dry out for a time Wednesday but we should
see stuff develop to our west once again along the front. The
front will then push east Wednesday later afternoon into the
overnight. 1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE will build in during the day
Wednesday with bulk shear pushing above 30 knots. The highest CAPE
will be over the western portion of the area and this is the area
that will see the highest risk for a few stronger storms in the
late afternoon and early overnight. 0-1 km shear looks to remain
weak and that will keep the tornado threat low with wind and hail
being the main threats with any stronger storms along with heavy
rain. As storms push east into the overnight the severe threat
will be lower.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The cold front will stall over the region and this will keep an
unsettled weather pattern in place. We will see short waves pass
over the area from time to time Thursday through the weekend.
This will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms. Widespread
sever weather is unlikely during this time frame but we will see
high CAPE over the area and shear will be marginal, a few strong
storms here and there will be possible with wind and hail being
the threats. PWATs will be high between 1.0 and 1.5" and heavy
rain will be likely with any convection and could at least bring a
low-end shot at some cumulative flooding by Monday. Upper level
trough will push into the Great Lakes early next week pushing a
front into the region. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast.

Highs will cool into the lower 80s Thursday and Friday and will
warm back into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend. They will
cool some early next week but will stay in the 80s. Summer like
dew points build in by Thursday staying in the lower 70s through
the weekend, it will feel humid out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions continue this taf cycle. Winds will stay on the
lighter side overnight, generally less than 5 kts out of the
south. They will pick up tomorrow after 18Z to 5-10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  68  88  69 /   0  10  40  50
Clarksville    90  68  86  67 /   0  20  70  70
Crossville     83  63  82  64 /  10  10  20  20
Columbia       89  67  87  67 /   0   0  20  40
Cookeville     85  65  83  66 /  10   0  20  30
Jamestown      84  63  83  64 /  10  10  20  30
Lawrenceburg   88  66  86  67 /   0   0  20  30
Murfreesboro   90  66  88  67 /   0   0  20  30
Waverly        91  68  87  66 /   0  20  60  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Baggett