928
FXUS64 KOHX 200129
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
829 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 822 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

All is quiet this evening with mostly clear skies and calm winds.
Today`s 00Z sounding shows drier air across the area, especially
near the surface where dewpoint depressions are about 15 degrees.
Do think widespread dense fog is unlikely tonight with this drier
air, but some patchy fog is still possible overnight, especially
along the Plateau and along rivers. Otherwise, look for a
beautiful Monday with dry conditions, mostly clear skies, and
temperatures warming up into the upper-80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Warm day ahead. Late this morning, under plentiful sunshine,
temperatures are already pushing through the 70s with a few lower
80s. Skies are mostly sunny and we will continue to warm well into
the 80s.

Upper ridge to move slowly across the mid state through Monday, with
additional ridging moving in on Tuesday. This will keep us on the
toasty side for mid May.  850 mb temps will edge upward a degree or
so by Tuesday afternoon. Looks like upper 80s to near 90 for our
upcoming highs. Overnight lows will generally remain in the 60s.
Afternoon dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to near 60 so the heat
index humidity factor looks close to zero effect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

In the extended forecast, upper ridge will break down with a quasi
zonal regime prevailing thereafter. A frontal boundary on Wednesday
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The boundary will
stall out and weaken by Thursday, but will continue to serve as a
initiator for further convection.

A warm front will lift north by Saturday with another frontal system
following on Sunday. Thus, shower and thunderstorm chances will ramp
up once again late in the extended period.

As of any severe weather, nothing really jumps out synoptically.
Instability levels do climb but look to be paired with weak shear
and sketchy organizational levels. Currently, we are not outlooked
but the day 4 is active to our west. This has to do with that mid
week frontal system mentioned earlier. Again though, phasing is just
fair to poor by the time the fropa occurs in our neck of the woods.
Otherwise, rainfall amounts over the next 7 days look like just one
to two inches, so not too bad.

For the extended temperatures, looking warm Wednesday ahead of the
boundary. Then, a 5f-8F cool down will follow. Mid to upper 80s will
return for the weekend. Overnight lows look warm with mid to upper
60s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR/SKC conditions will prevail due to ridging influences sfc and
aloft with following two VFR exceptions. MVFR fog formation
possible 20/08Z-20/12Z SRB/CSV due to best low level moisture
pooling potential. Wind direction will veer thru 20/16Z, but
because wind speeds forecasted light, emphasized only mean wind
direction. A more sustained light S/SW sfc flow pattern should
become established after 20/17Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  89  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    62  87  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     57  81  59  82 /   0  10   0   0
Columbia       61  87  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     60  83  63  84 /   0  10   0   0
Jamestown      57  83  61  83 /   0  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   62  85  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   61  87  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        62  87  66  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....JB Wright