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FXUS64 KOHX 140138 AAA
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
838 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, sky condition, and wind
speed/direction grids blending them with associated previously
forecasted late evening gridded values. Current regional
temperature trends continue to support forecasted overnight
low temperature values. Although a little more PW than this
time yesterday noted in KOHX 14/00Z Sounding, around seasonal
normal values now, and an increase in derived atmospheric
indicies values also noted, current surface riding influences
along with building upper level riding influences from our
southwest, will continue to keep "A Cap on Things" with minimal
cloudiness and no convection/rainfall expected through remainder
of tonight. Some patchy fog continues to be possible mainly near
bodies of water as remainder of nighttime hours progress.
Otherwise, current forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

We have a pretty decent day going on across Middle TN right now.
Temps have climbed into the 80s for almost everyone and without a
southerly boundary layer flow, some mixing is occuring. This is
helping to drop dew points in a few spots and relaxing RH values.
Take advantage. This isn`t going to be the case moving forward into
the weekend.

In the short term, look for some fog development tonight, especially
near bodies of water. I don`t think we`re going to need a dense fog
advisory, but just know visibilities could drop off quickly near
lakes and rivers during your morning commute tomorrow. After any fog
dissipates, we`re looking another decent day with afternoon highs in
the low 90s, like today. Models continue to push an unseasonal front
through the region during the day tomorrow, but it still looks to
wash out before it can cause any rain chances here across the mid-
state. The most likely result from the frontal passage is afternoon
highs a degree or two cooler Saturday than we`ll see today or
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

By the end of the weekend, upper level ridging will re-assert itself
across the eastern half of the US. This is going spike afternoon
highs here in Middle TN. Chances of reaching triple digit air
temperatures aren`t looking great, but highs in the upper 90s
coupled with dew points in the upper 60s is likely going to push a
few areas in triple digit Heat Index values on Sunday. With the
ridge in place, I think rain chances will be very, very small
Sunday, but as the ridge pushes east on Monday, we could see enough
height falls to create a chance of isolated to scattered afternoon
storms. If this occurs, these will fall into the typical summertime
thunderstorm category -- heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible.
Beyond Monday, rain chances fall off once again, but afternoon
temperatures look to remain in the low 90s as summer heat starts to
take hold across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions continue this taf cycle. Winds will continue to
lessen and eventually go light into the overnight hours. Patchy
dense fog is possible overnight mainly at SRB and CSV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  94  70  92 /   0  10   0   0
Clarksville    64  91  67  90 /   0  10   0   0
Crossville     63  87  64  86 /   0  10   0   0
Columbia       65  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     66  89  66  87 /   0  10  10   0
Jamestown      64  87  64  85 /   0  10  10   0
Lawrenceburg   66  93  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   66  94  68  93 /   0  10   0   0
Waverly        65  92  67  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Baggett