320
FXUS64 KOHX 241756
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1256 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Shortwave upstream is producing the wakening area of showers and
thunderstorms that is attempting to move across our southwestern
counties. This area should continue to weaken. However, convective
temperatures will again get breached this afternoon with
additional development expected. Strong to severe activity will be
largely cape dependent. Otherwise, afternoon forcing looks a
little sub par, instability is moderate, 850 mb speeds are 25 kt
at most.

There will be a dissipating boundary on approach later tonight. This
activity appears to be the reason for our slight risk into our far
west. Phasing of instability and forcing looks really good back
toward the MS River. However, these levels drop off toward the east
and thus much of our area is only in a marginal. Nevertheless,
toward sunrise these storms may hold together with wind and hail
being the primary threat. Also, helicity values are still in the 100-
200 range so cant rule out a spinner or two. Isolated rainfall
amounts of 1-2 inches could occur with the strongest storms.

Moving on, Saturday appears to offer somewhat of a break as
forcing/organization looks very weak. This break may hold on through
Sunday morning as we pick up on some mid/upper level ridging and a
temperature increase of a few degrees at those levels. The break,
however, will come to an end as the main thrust of severe
potential kicks in in the afternoon and particularly overnight.
The phasing of high cape and high shear looks particularly
alarming during that late afternoon and early evening timeframe.
Mid level lapse rates of over 8C are noted on the gfs. All facets
of severe potential will be on the table. Average rainfall amounts
look like an inch or so but isolated area could again eclipse the
2" level.

For the near term temps, look for warm summerlike conditions with
lows mid to upper 60s and highs upper 80s to near 90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

In the extended forecast, there appears to be a final cold frontal
boundary that will not work through the area until Monday night.
Hence, isolated to scattered non severe activity could linger into
your Monday. Following this, the drier and cooler air will win out
as a surface high builds down from the north. This should keep us
dry through the remainder of the period with temperatures returning
to near and eventually below normal for late May/early June. Low
temps for both Wednesday and Thursday nights will be well down into
the 50s. Highs in the 70s with less humid conditions. A very nice
break from the warm and muggy conditons we`ve been experiencing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Several admendments probable thru 25/18Z. On specifics, actual wx
element evolution uncertain, especially 25/00Z-25/18Z SRB/CSV.
Although tstms possible SRB/CSV, confidence not high enough to
mention prevailing/vicinity tstms in a specific 2-4 hour highlight
window. Addressed both locations VCSH from 25/00Z-25/18Z. Little
better clarification for TAF locations to the E, with potentially
two distinct best tstm develop periods BNA/CKV. VFR ceilings
prevail, TEMPO groups MVFR. S/SW sfc winds 5-10kts thru 25/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  87  70  91 /  70  40  30  40
Clarksville    66  84  69  89 /  70  30  40  40
Crossville     61  81  63  84 /  50  50  40  50
Columbia       65  86  68  90 /  70  40  30  30
Cookeville     63  81  65  85 /  50  50  40  50
Jamestown      61  81  63  85 /  60  50  40  50
Lawrenceburg   65  85  68  89 /  60  50  30  30
Murfreesboro   65  86  67  90 /  60  40  30  30
Waverly        65  84  68  90 /  70  40  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....JB Wright