820
FXUS64 KOHX 280500
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1200 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A few light showers have popped up on the Plateau. Those should
dissipate within the next hour or two and then we will see quiet
conditions overnight with clear skies and light winds. This will
lead to some patchy fog by daybreak. Lows tonight will fall into
the mid 50s to low 60s and dew points will be a little more
comfortable in the upper 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

CAMs hinting at maybe some isolated convection developing upstream
from mid state region in a quasi upper level zonal flow pattern
and traversing west to east across our area as afternoon hours
progress today. As of this time, will continue with dry conditions
and reevaluate this possiblity based on regional radar mosiac
imagery and latest CAMs trends per next scheduled grids update
between 2 PM - 3PM this afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions look
to prevail through Tuesday as dry surface cold front continues to
push southeastward across our area eventually moving southeast of
mid state region by the mid afternoon hours today. Surface high
pressure influences to our west will move eastward into our area
as Tuesday progresses with a reinforcing colder high pressure
airmass centered across southern Manitoba, Canada continuing it
shift southward. Aloft, a more southwesterly dry flow aloft
pattern will develops as tonight into Tuesday progresses. With all
this said, still expecting highs later today to top out in low to
mid 80s, upper 70s to around 80 for locations across and just
west of Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows tonight will be around
seasonal normal values ranging upper 50s to lower 60s, mid 50s
Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Tuesday look like they will be
a carbon copy of those experienced this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Lows Tuesday night will range from upper 50s to lower 60s, mid
50s for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau
Region as a cold air advection pattern begins. These Canadian
based high pressure influences will broaden out across much of
eastern CONUS and slowly shift southeastward as long term
forecast period progresses. Dry northwesterly flow continues aloft
will continue at least through the afternoon hours on Thursday.
As a result, highs are expected to be a few degrees below seasonal
values on Wednesday afternoon ranging mainly in upper 70s, mid
70s Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows Wednesday night will really
reflect brunt of this cold air advection pattern scenario with
lows quite seasonably cool ranging mid 50s, even down into upper
40s to lower 50s Upper Cumberland Region. It could be worse, our
friends across Upper MI near surface high pressure center will be
experiencing temperatures Wednesday Night in the upper 30s!
Coldest highs of entire forecast period look to occur on Thursday
with highs mainly mid to upper 70s, and a carbon copy of Wednesday
Nights lows again look to be experienced Thursday night across
our region too. Eventually these surface high pressure influences
will shift into central Atlantic states area by Sunday and then
off the U.S. East Coast by early next work week. This will result
in a more southerly low level atmospheric flow pattern developing
across much of eastern half of CONUS with possibly a weak surface
frontal system approaching from southern MS River Valley Region by
shortly after sunrise on Sunday morning. Building out of the
central CONUS, a pronounced upper level ridging influences should
continue to keep mid state dry through Friday evening. However,
look for a warming trend to commence as Friday progresses with
temperatures rising to around seasonal normal values by next
Monday afternoon. As those upper level ridging influences shift
eastward Friday evening, and a more disorganized upper level
pattern prevails across our area, shower and thunderstorm chances
will return to mid state region late Friday night and continue
through weekend into first part of next work week. Despite this
unsettled weather pattern developing across our area, total
expected rainfall amounts from late Friday night through first
part of next work week look initially to only range from around
0.25" eastern portions of our area to approaching around 0.75" TN
River Valley Region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The only exceptions to VFR through this taf period will be some
late night MVFR fog at CSV and SRB. Winds will be light overnight
then NW near 10KT daytime Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  84  60  81 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    60  81  58  78 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     56  76  52  74 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       62  84  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     58  78  54  75 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      56  77  54  74 /  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   62  83  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   61  84  57  81 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        61  83  59  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....13