653
FXUS61 KOKX 162341
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
741 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will gradually retreat north on
Tuesday. Double barrel low pressure in the Mid Atlantic region
will in place through mid week, likely lingering into Friday.
The system will then pivot east, with high pressure gradually
nosing down from the north Friday night and into the weekend.
The high should remain in control into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
For this update no significant changes. Just increased clouds a
bit more than previous based on latest satellite trends with
cirrus streaming in a bit faster to the north and northeast.

For tonight, ridging holds for the most part, with just a
subtle shift to the northeast. More in the way of high clouds
should work in, also some low clouds from the south and east
after midnight, and some patchy fog in outlying areas mostly
per 12Z HREF probabilities as low level moisture increases.

Temperatures should bottom out in the lower 60s invof NYC, in
the upper 40s well NW of NYC, and in the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will gradually begin to wane in strength
on Tuesday. Morning low clouds will take some time to burn off
given the high cloud cover also present, giving way to sunshine
filtered through high clouds in the afternoon. Mid level clouds
with the system to the south now look to hold off until daytime
Wed. Have gone on the higher side of MOS for temps for Tue,
with temps similar to those of today or just a touch warmer
despite afternoon high clouds as low level thicknesses remain
nearly steady, with highs once again in the 70s to near 80.

Expect a repeat of low cloud cover coming back in Tue night,
also some patchy fog mainly well inland, while high clouds
also thicken. It should remain dry, with low temps from the 50s
to the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A closed low over the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic
region will be in place to begin the period on Wednesday. The
latest guidance appears to be hesitating getting the more
organized moisture farther north and completely into our
region. Much of the rainfall appears to be favored to take place
to the west and southwest of the region. One thing is certain,
and that is the region will experience more cloud cover for the
mid to late week period. Low pressure is expected to get better
organized just south of the area and offshore. This low is
expected to track east- northeast fairly slowly later Wednesday
into Thursday. Thus, cloud cover is expected to persist, along
with a NE flow. Questions remain among the global guidance as to
how much rain and shower activity gets into the region. Chance
PoPs appears to be the way to go for now due to all the
uncertainty around precip and corresponding QPF. Model soundings
indicate some relatively drier pockets in the column, and not
a saturated column. With more of a remnant upper level low aloft
that gradually fills in and gets shunted south over time expect
some showers perhaps to rotate through from time to time for
Wednesday through Thursday night. Some of the latest guidance is
suggesting that may stall through at least the first half of
Friday. Thus, have not removed PoP and have only nudged down a
bit into the day Friday and for Friday night.

NAEFS and the much of the remaining global guidance (with the
exception of the DWD) are suggestive that the upper level
troughing gets nudged east and perhaps south into the weekend.
However, one can see that the global consensus is not nearly as
aggressive in doing so. For now will keep the weekend primarily
dry, but it does not take much movement for the an introduction
of showers / rain at some point during the weekend, with a
relatively higher risk of shower activity on Saturday.
Relatively speaking Sunday appears to be a safer bet in terms of
completely dry weather. With high pressure to the north making
more of a gradual push south leaning towards a dry weekend
overall, but with intervals of clouds, especially at the mid and
upper levels. High pressure is therefore expected to assume
more control for the second half of the weekend and into Monday.

The temperature outlook is a bit difficult on a day to day
basis, especially pertaining to day time highs. However,
overall temperatures are expected to average slightly above
normal Wednesday through Saturday (especially pertaining to
night time minimums). By Sunday and Monday temperatures are
expected to be below seasonal levels, being cooler overall and
less humid.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain centered off the New England coast
through Tuesday.

VFR. There is a chance of MVFR to IFR ceilings late tonight
into early Tuesday morning. With low confidence in this
occurring have used TEMPO. MVFR to IFR fog is also possible for
outlying terminals. If MVFR/IFR occurs, conditions should
improve by 14Z-16Z, becoming VFR.

ESE winds generally under 10 kt early this evening become light
NE to light and variable. A more easterly flow is expected
Tuesday, with winds becoming ESE Tuesday afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning if
MVFR to IFR stratus develops. Low confidence in this occurring.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR or lower conditions
late.

Wednesday and Thursday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower
conditions. ENE winds 10-15G20kt on Wed, mainly at the
coastal terminals.

Friday: VFR. Chance of showers. NE winds G15-20kt.

Saturday: VFR. NE winds 15-20G25kt, especially near the coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Ocean seas have been remaining at 5 ft at 44025 and may rise
slightly, so will start the SCA for the ocean waters W of
Moriches now. Meanwhile seas at 44079 SE of Montauk are running
around 3 ft, and may take until daytime Tue to each 5 ft. SCA E
of Moriches Inlet in effect beginning 8 AM Tue.

SCA conditions, primarily due to seas of 5-6 ft, are likely to
continue out on the ocean through the day Wednesday. There is a
chance that seas could linger around 5 ft through Thursday. Seas
may fluctuate at times between 4 and 5 ft late Thursday into
Friday. A NE wind is expected throughout and could gust close to
25 kt toward Friday. More widespread 25+ kt wind gusts are more
likely toward Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected. Storm total QPF from Wed into Thu
of 1/2 to 1 inch likely across ern Long Island and far SE CT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding remains a possibility, if not a
likelihood for portions of the coast for the mid to late week
period. The chances for widespread minor coastal flooding
increase with a northeast wind and potential piling of water
water at some coastal gauges. A few locations may reach moderate
coastal flood benchmarks, especially for the western south
shore bays later in the week.

There will be a high rip current risk for most of the ocean
beaches, except for a moderate risk for the eastern most ocean
beaches on Tuesday. A high rip current risk is expected for all
ocean beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BG
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/BG
HYDROLOGY...JE/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...