544
FXUS61 KOKX 201508
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1108 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain south and east of Long Island through
through Saturday, then slowly head farther offshore early next
week. Meanwhile, high pressure will nose in from the northeast
into Monday and remain in control through Tuesday. A frontal
system will approach mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains mostly on track this morning. Made some
adjustments to PoP and sky cover based on latest observations.

A rather persistent weather pattern will continue into the
weekend across the Northeast. Low pressure will linger south and
east of Long Island, with high pressure slowly ridging southwest
out of southeast Canada.

Most of the region will remain dry through tonight. The east end
of Long Island and southeast Connecticut could see a few showers
on the northwest side of the offshore low, but so far any
activity has had a hard time making it this far west.
The chance could be slightly higher tonight as some upper level
energy pivots west around the associated upper low.
The thickest cloud cover should also remain across eastern Long
Island and southeast Connecticut with partly cloudy conditions
further west towards the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson
Valley.

Highs today across much of the area will be in the mid/upper
70s, except out east where highs will be in the upper 60s/lower
70s, and perhaps in the NYC metro area where a few 80 degree
readings are not out of the question. Slightly cooler air should
begin to advect in from the north tonight, with temps falling to
the mid/upper 50s for most spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will continue to spin south and east of Long Island
on Saturday. The associated upper low remains nearly stationary
as well, but should begin to open up in the afternoon/evening as
it interacts with upper level energy from the Great Lakes. This
interaction should ultimately begin the process of moving the
upper trough axis further offshore Saturday night and Sunday. As
a result, the surface low will slowly move further offshore.
High pressure will continue ridging down from southeast Canada
on Saturday, but will become more dominant on Sunday.

The chance for a few showers will remain across the east end of
Long Island and southeast Connecticut on Saturday. Its beginning
to look like the bulk of any showers will remain closer to Cape
Cod, but did not want to completely remove PoP yet as the
modeling continues to struggle resolving if this precip can make
it as far west as New London and the Twin Forks. Otherwise, it
will remain dry for the rest of the area with partly to mostly
cloudy skies. The interaction with the upper level energy from
the Great Lakes will likely increase cloud cover a bit areawide
in the afternoon and evening. Highs should be a bit cooler on
Saturday with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s east and middle
to upper 70s west, especially NYC metro and NE NJ.

Conditions will improve further Saturday night into Sunday with
the high pressure building further south and the offshore low
moving further away from the coast. Dry conditions are expected
with highs near seasonable levels in the lower to middle 70s.
With cooler and drier air over the region, temperatures Sunday
night look to fall into the upper 40s inland and lower to middle
50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No major changes made to the long term Monday through Thursday
with the NBM used for the forecast.

Key Points:

* Dry Monday and Tuesday.

* Possible showers mid to late week with an approaching frontal
  system.

* Temperatures will likely end up slightly below normal.

Upper ridge axis slides over the area on Monday with surface
high pressure over New England. The ridge flattens by Tuesday
with guidance signaling a shortwave passing well to our north
and west on Tuesday. Dry conditions are generally expected
Monday and Tuesday. There will likely be mostly cloudy
conditions late Monday and continuing into Tuesday with SW flow
aloft. There may also be a passing shower well inland late
Tuesday and Tuesday night. The chance for showers slowly spreads
across the rest of the area Wednesday into Thursday as a larger
upper trough and associated frontal system slowly approach from
the west. The global deterministic and ensemble guidance are in
disagreement on the overall evolution of trough as it nears the
coast during this time frame. See no reason to sway from the
model consensus on PoP overall, but capped at chance for now
given this is a Day 6-7 forecast.

Highs will mainly be in the the upper 60s/lower 70s this week,
with nighttime temperatures in the 50s. Some moderation is
possible late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure remains south and east of Long Island through
through Saturday.

Mainly VFR but some MVFR stratus this afternoon, more so
outside of NYC terminals. NYC terminals could see some MVFR
stratus as well. Added VCSH out toward KGON where some low
level moisture may spiral in off the ocean from the north east

NE winds 10-15kt gusts near 20 kt this afternoon. Winds subside
into tonight. Winds return to 5-10 kt flow on average.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for timing of wind gusts and any potential
MVFR ceilings.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR. MVFR in possible showers, but low chance of
occurring, mainly near KGON. NE gusts around 15-25 kt possible,
highest gusts east.

Sunday: VFR. NE gusts 15-25 kt possible, highest gusts east.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with pockets of MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on the ocean through Saturday night, and
will likely need to be expanded into early next week as
persistent N-NE flow keeps seas elevated above 5 ft. Wind gusts
over 25 kt will be a little more challenging to reach, but are
more likely around Moriches Inlet on east.

SCA also remains in effect for the Sound east of the mouth of
the CT River and the bays of eastern Long Island Bays, where
there is a window of opportunity this afternoon and evening for
wind gusts up to 25 kt.

Winds on the ocean should start to weaken Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flooding expected to continue into and early next week
due to offshore low pressure and an associated persistent E
wind fetch, with elevated ocean seas. Surge increases into
tonight and then may not change much into Saturday. While
astronomical levels will be on a downward trend, the surge will
compensate for the total water level.

Forecast surge varies from near 1 to near 2 ft, highest along
the south shore bays of Long Island and parts of western Long
Island Sound. These areas plus parts of lower NY Harbor should
see the greatest impact.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding expected today and Saturday.
Warnings are in effect for today`s high tide cycle for the south
shore bays of Nassau/Queens, and most areas along the
westernmost Sound and the SW CT coastline. Coastal flood watches
are also in effect for the Saturday high tide cycle for these
areas as as well as for areas in Kings/Richmond along lower NY
Harbor. Advisories are in effect elsewhere.

A high rip current risk through Saturday will likely need to be
extended into Sunday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for CTZ009-
     010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Watch Saturday afternoon for CTZ009-010.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     CTZ011-012.
NY...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ071-
     073-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Watch Saturday afternoon for NYZ071-073-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ078>081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ072-074-075.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ072-074-075-080-081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ074-075-080-178-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Saturday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ176.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ178-
     179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ006-106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332-
     340.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG/