624
FXUS66 KOTX 170452
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
952 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cool with periods of rain over
north Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Winds will pick
up out of the west on Tuesday and will be widespread across parts
of central and eastern Washington. Conditions will trend drier
toward the end of the work week, then precipitation chances
return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday: Chances for showers will increase tonight
into tomorrow over the Cascades, eastern third of WA, and the ID
Panhandle. Showers in eastern WA and the ID Panhandle will be from
precipitation wrapping around a center of low pressure to our
southeast, while showers over the Cascades will be caused by another
low moving down the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska, placing the
region in a moist, southwesterly flow regime. Precipitation will be
light with less than a tenth of an inch expected over the course of
the day tomorrow for most locations. The eastern portion of the ID
Panhandle bordering Montana may see closer to two tenths of an inch.
High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 60s to low 70s
for far eastern WA and north ID to the upper 70s and low 80s for the
western Columbia Basin and the Okanogan Valley. Winds will pick up
out of the west tomorrow afternoon and evening over the Waterville
Plateau, western Columbia Basin, and the Camas Prairie with gusts
reaching 25 to 30 mph. Wednesday will be similar to tomorrow as far
as temperatures go, but winds won`t be as breezy and showers will be
confined to the ID/MT border. Patchy fog may develop tomorrow night
into early Wednesday morning after tomorrow`s showers.

Thursday through Sunday: Thursday in Friday are looking drier as the
low along the West Coast continues to move south and weak ridging
builds over the Inland Northwest. High temperatures will remain
consistent in the 70s, and lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s.
There is still some model disagreement as to what the weekend will
look like, but most models are showing some kind of trough redevelop
which would likely bring another round of precip. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. A large low pressure system
well to our south over Nevada will move into southern Idaho on
Tuesday. Bands of showers will continue to rotate north up into SE
Washington, the Idaho Panhandle, and far eastern reaches of NE
Washington. In addition elevated instability could trigger a few
thunderstorms, but with the best chances east of Lewiston and
Coeur d`Alene did not mention in any of the TAF`s.  Given the
scattered nature of the showers, a PROB30 group was used for much
of the TAF period for KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS, but amendments are
possible for any more organized shower clusters that develop.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
A moist atmosphere combined with elevated instability leads to
moderate confidence of increasing showers for SE WA and N Idaho
overnight into Tuesday. Some models show some localized heavier
showers, but confidence of these impacting the TAF sites KPUW,
KLWS, KCOE carries lower confidence. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  72  49  74  48  75 /  10  30  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  70  49  73  48  73 /  10  40  30  10  10   0
Pullman        49  64  45  67  44  71 /  40  50  20  10  10   0
Lewiston       54  70  55  75  53  78 /  40  50  20  10  10   0
Colville       44  76  38  77  38  76 /   0  20  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      47  72  46  70  45  71 /  10  50  40  20  10   0
Kellogg        49  66  50  65  49  70 /  30  60  40  30  10  10
Moses Lake     48  79  48  78  46  78 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      55  77  56  78  55  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  83  52  82  51  81 /   0  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$