561
FXUS66 KOTX 141116
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
416 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be dry and breezy as a cold front moves through the
region. Precipitation chances will increase Friday night into
Saturday with light snow down to 5000 feet over the Cascades and
northeast Washington. Breezy to gusty winds along with isolated
thunderstorms and rain showers are expected Saturday afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will trend cooler into early next week
with the potential for frost in colder pockets Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday Night: A closed low just to the west of
Vancouver Island today will send a dry cold front across the
region this morning. Dry, breezy west to southwest winds behind
the front will promote an elevated fire environment across much
of Central and Eastern Washington especially across the Columbia
Basin. Yet conditions are a little shy of critical thresholds and
thus no fire weather highlights are in effect. For tonight into
Saturday the closed low pushes east across northern Washington and
southern British Columbia. Continued cold advection will keep the
winds elevated into Saturday, with gusts of 25-40 MPH across much
of the region. The highest gusts will occur along the East Slopes
of the Cascades, through the Wenatchee area, Columbia Basin, West
Plains, and Palouse. In addition, cooling aloft with the passing
low will destabilize the atmosphere on Saturday resulting in
increasing showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms over the
region. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing infrequent
lightning, gusty winds, brief downpours, and small hail.

The other story will be the cooler temperatures. Snow levels fall
to 4000-5000 feet Saturday morning, with a 50-70% chance of light
snow over Stevens, Sherman, and Washington Passes. Yet the chances
for 1" or more from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday is only 15-30%
given the warmer ground temperatures and high sun angle of mid-
June. Yet, those hiking in the mountains should be prepared for
cold temperatures and light snow. Lastly, as the showers fizzle
Saturday evening, models have the skies clearing out over most of
the region with decreasing winds. This may allow patchy frost to
develop in the northern mountain valleys, and portions of the
Upper Columbia Basin, Palouse, and Camas Prairie. Those with
sensitive plants in these areas may have to take action to protect
plants from frost as lows drop into the mid 30s. JW

Sunday through Thursday: With low pressure across the Inland
Northwest, expect cooler than normal daytime temperatures and
chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms early next week.
The best chances for precip look to be across the Cascades,
northern WA mountains, and northern Idaho. Even some light snow is
forecast above 4500 feet across the Cascades Sunday. Some patchy
frost is possible Sunday morning across areas that are typically
susceptable, particularly across our sheltered northern valleys.
Forecast becomes more uncertain for Wednesday and Thursday, but
most model solutions indicate the beginning of a drying and
warming trend. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: An incoming trough will bring cooling and increasing
winds. Winds will begin to pick up early this morning across the
region. Wind gusts 30 to 40 mph will be common in the lee of the
Cascades around KEAT and then across the west Plains for Spokane,
Felts Field, Coeur d`Alene Friday afternoon. Winds will decrease
around 02z but remain steady overnight with stronger winds and
more widely scattered showers in the forecast for Saturday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence in continued VFR conditions through 12z
Saturday.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        73  49  64  40  63  42 /   0   0  50  20  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  72  47  61  39  62  41 /   0   0  60  20  20  10
Pullman        68  45  60  37  59  41 /   0   0  40  20   0  10
Lewiston       80  52  71  45  70  49 /   0   0  30   0   0  10
Colville       74  44  62  33  59  35 /   0  10  80  30  40  20
Sandpoint      72  46  59  37  58  39 /   0   0  70  50  30  20
Kellogg        69  48  55  40  57  44 /   0   0  70  30  20  20
Moses Lake     77  51  69  39  68  46 /   0   0  20   0  10  10
Wenatchee      73  52  66  44  66  48 /   0   0  20   0  10  10
Omak           79  48  69  40  66  43 /   0  10  40   0  30  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$