724
FXUS66 KOTX 142200
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
300 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to gusty winds along with isolated thunderstorms and rain
showers are expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Snow will be
possible down to 5000 feet. Temperatures will trend cooler into
early next week with the potential for frost in colder pockets
Sunday and Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly in
the mountains will be possible each afternoon through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Friday and Saturday: Breezy southwesterly winds have infiltrated the
region following this morning`s passage of a dry cold front. Fire
weather concerns will remain elevated this afternoon and evening due
to the combination of 20 to 30 mph wind gusts and relative humidity
percentages in the low 20s.

As a center of low pressure tracks eastward through the Inland
Northwest, chances for precip will increase tonight into tomorrow.
Cold air advection will drop snow levels down to between 4000 and
5000 feet tomorrow through Sunday morning. Higher mountain passes
including Stevens, Sherman, and Washington have a 60 percent chance
of seeing light snow between 5 AM tomorrow and 5 AM Sunday, though
accumulations and impacts will be minimal due to warm ground
temperatures and the high sun angle this time of year. Those
recreating in mountain areas should plan ahead for light snow and
prepare accordingly.

Tomorrow`s winds will be slightly stronger than today`s with gusts
upward of 40 mph expected for the eastern slopes of the Cascades,
the Wenatchee area, exposed areas of the Columbia Basin, the West
Plains, and the Palouse. In addition to gusty winds, convective
showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast for tomorrow
afternoon and evening. An unstable atmosphere will allow any
thunderstorms that develop to produce lightning, brief downpours,
and small hail.

By tomorrow night, showers will dissipate and skies will begin to
clear, which should enable the surface to radiate heat away rather
efficiently. As a result, Sunday morning will be the coldest morning
of the forecast period. Lows will be in the 30s to low 40s
regionwide, and patchy frost will be likely for sheltered northern
valleys. /Fewkes

Sunday through Thursday: The Northwest will remain under the influence
of an upper-level trough throughout the period. This will equate
to cooler than normal temperatures, periods of showers and some
thunderstorms, and on a positive note, no significant wind events.
An anomalously cool low will be over the area Sunday into Monday
before ejecting into to the east around Tuesday. Sunday will start
off cool with potential for patchy frost across the sheltered
mountain valleys and Upper Columbia Basin. At this time,
probabilities for temperatures of 34F or cooler are between 30-60
for locations like Deer Park, Colville, Republic, Priest Lake,
Ione and 10-20% around Wilbur, Davenport, St Maries. There will be
a shield of clouds coming in from the north around sunrise; if
this can arrive earlier, probabilities could trend lower.
Afternoon heating Sunday afternoon will destabilize the atmosphere
with widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms largely in
northern and central WA Sunday afternoon then shifting into Idaho
and Eastern WA Monday. Dynamic forcing will be also be stronger
Monday as the low begins to eject leading to higher rainfall
totals along the ID/MT border. CPC has W MT outlined for potential
heavy rainfall for June 17-18 so probabilities for the heavier
rains in Idaho has decreased at this time. Precipitation amounts
will be not be particular heavy but a few localized areas could
pickup over a quarter of an inch. The main energy of the trough
will fill and drift east early next week but a baggy trough will
persist over the PacNW. Temperatures will slowly return to near
average with a 20-30% chance for afternoon convection each
afternoon across the northern mountains. These cells will be the
slow moving variety forming over the higher terrain producing
pockets of a tenth or slightly more. Rainfall amounts will be
spotty. Thinking we will finally push temperatures to normal or
mid to upper 70s by Wednesday and upper 70s to mid 80s by
Thursday. /sb

&&

.AVIATION...

20Z Update...added smoke to the Lewiston TAF. A new wildfire
burning near the Snake River south of Pullman is producing an
abundance of smoke. Transport winds are bringing this smoke into
the Lewiston Area with visibility down to 5 miles. Would not rule
out temporarily going down to 3SM but this comes with low
confidence.

18Z TAFS: Winds are picking up across the region as a trough moves
in from the west. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common in
the lee of the Cascades around KEAT and then across the west
Plains for Spokane, Felts Field, and Coeur d`Alene Friday
afternoon. Winds will decrease around 02z but remain steady
overnight with stronger winds and scattered showers in the
forecast for Saturday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence in continued VFR conditions through 18z
Saturday.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  64  39  64  41  65 /   0  50  10  10  10  30
Coeur d`Alene  47  61  38  60  40  64 /   0  70  20  10  10  30
Pullman        46  59  36  60  38  57 /  10  40  10   0  10  40
Lewiston       52  69  44  68  46  70 /  10  30  10   0  10  40
Colville       44  62  33  60  36  67 /  10  90  30  50  30  40
Sandpoint      45  59  37  57  38  62 /   0  90  40  40  30  40
Kellogg        48  56  40  58  42  57 /   0  80  30  20  10  50
Moses Lake     51  69  40  68  45  72 /   0  20  10  10  10  10
Wenatchee      51  66  45  66  48  70 /   0  10  10  10  10  10
Omak           49  69  40  66  44  74 /  10  60  10  40  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$