686
FXUS64 KOUN 190343
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1043 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1041 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in northern and western
  Oklahoma this evening, with scattered thunderstorms possible
  from northern to central Oklahoma tomorrow evening.

- Hot/humid conditions on Thursday and Friday.

- Heat relief looking probable by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Cumulus has begun to develop in northwestern Oklahoma, and there
remains some signal in both synoptic models and CAMs of seeing
convection development across northwestern and western Oklahoma
late this afternoon or this evening near an area of confluence in
the low-level wind field. Forcing is not terribly strong and
expected any development to be isolated or scattered. There is an
axis of higher instability from west central Texas up into far
northwestern Oklahoma with CAPE above 1000 J/kg per SPC
mesoanalysis and short-term RAP forecast, so an isolated strong or
severe storm will be possible, and SPC`s marginal risk area
highlights the potential area well... but do currently think that
severe potential will be isolated. Although many of the showers
and storms will likely dissipate by mid-late evening, there is
still enough QPF signal in some models overnight and into Thursday
morning to keep some low POPs in the forecast. But scattered
storms are expected to develop again Thursday afternoon near and
ahead of a front moving into the area.

Winds veer ahead of this front Thursday proving a more downslope
flow and warmer temperatures. And even though a front pushes into
northwest Oklahoma on Thursday, the arrival is late enough it
won`t provide relief from the warm expected temperatures on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Thursday`s front washes out and still does not provide any
significant cooling for the area, so warm weather will continue
Friday and Saturday. A western U.S. trough is still expected to
eject toward the Plains this weekend, but the trend continues to
slow this system and related precipitation for our forecast area -
more toward Saturday night and Sunday. The forecast continues to
carry 30%+ POPs north and 20% POPs south, but the highest QPF
signal is north of the forecast area given the projected track of
the storm system. This system does help push a front south through
the forecast area Sunday and Sunday night bringing cooler weather
back into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

VFR will be forecast through the period, outside of restrictions
associated with scattered TSRA across northern and central
Oklahoma after 21Z. Otherwise, light to moderate southerly winds
ahead of a cold front that is progd to stall near the Kansas
border before lifting back to the north after this forecast valid
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  96  74  98 /  20  30  30   0
Hobart OK         74 100  74 100 /  20  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  75 100  74 101 /  10  20  10   0
Gage OK           70  99  68 100 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     72  99  70  98 /  20  30  30   0
Durant OK         71  97  72  98 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...11