Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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876 FXUS64 KOUN 100702 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 202 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A large area of showers/storms across parts of eastern NM, the TX panhandle and west TX extends into SW parts of the fa early this morning. This activity is expected to continue this morning. Heavy rain/flooding will be the main concern with this activity in the fa. Current radar trends appear to be showing at least a couple of MCVs have or are in the process of developing with this area of showers/storms in eastern NM and west TX. Showers/storms will remain possible through the day, mainly in SW parts of the fa, as the MCVs drift SE. The evening is currently expected to be dry across the fa with the loss of heating. However, additional showers/storms will be possible overnight into early Tuesday beginning in western/southwestern parts of the fa. Models show a shortwave moving into the southern Plains later today and tonight. Shower/storm development to the west of the area will be possible with this activity moving into the fa along with additional development in the fa possible, aided by the shortwave. Heavy rain and possibly gusty winds/small hail will be a concern. With cloud cover, rain, and NE/E winds behind the front that moved through yesterday, highs today are expected to be near or below average with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Showers/storms will remain possible during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night as the shortwave continues to slowly move across the southern Plains with the highest chances in western/southwestern parts of the fa. Rain chances are currently expected to end early Wednesday as the shortwave moves away from the fa. Heavy rain will be the biggest concern, especially in areas that receive several inches of rain over the last day or two. However, a few of the storms could produce some gusty winds or small hail. Models show ridge beginning to build into the region Wednesday from the southwest U.S. This will lead to a mostly dry forecast for the last half of the work week along with hotter conditions. Models show that the ridging over the region could be somewhat short-lived with another shortwave moving into the Plains next weekend. However, there are some differences on the path of this system so whether the fa will see any rain with this system will be dependent on whether it tracks far enough south to affect the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 MVFR cigs appear likely across southern Oklahoma and KSPS terminals tonight through at least 18Z tomorrow with moist post frontal upslope flow. Will mention VCTS/VCSH across far southern Oklahoma and KSPS terminals to start forecast. There is a possibility for additional TSRA late tonight, but uncertainty will preclude mentioning. Similarly, TSRA may develop over or move into southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas areas late tomorrow/toward end of forecast but confidence too low for PROBs or TEMPO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 82 63 84 66 / 0 0 20 10 Hobart OK 83 65 84 66 / 10 30 30 20 Wichita Falls TX 79 67 82 67 / 40 20 30 20 Gage OK 84 62 86 63 / 0 20 20 10 Ponca City OK 84 60 86 65 / 0 0 10 10 Durant OK 83 65 85 64 / 20 0 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...11