Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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251 FXUS64 KOUN 282010 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 310 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Rest of Today/Tonight: Storm chances (including potential for occasional severe outcomes), to continue this evening. Previous areas of widely scattered storms across northwestern Oklahoma have lost intensity while sliding into portions of west-central/central Oklahoma this afternoon. While gusty winds, lightning and brief heavy rainfall remain possible, severe weather chances have dramatically dwindled as storms have moved into an airmass modified by a complex of storms this morning. This allows attention to turn towards an expected round of precipitation/storms later this evening (after 7-8 PM), focusing across western Oklahoma into western-north Texas. Initial storm development with this round is underway across portions of the Panhandles/High Plains, as a weak subtropical impulse intercepts an effective (outflow) boundary from prior convection further east. Organized convection is expected, with eventually propagation towards portions of far western Oklahoma/western- north Texas. Severe weather outcomes, focusing on large hail/damaging winds, will be possible with these storms across far western/southwestern areas this evening into early portions of the overnight. A majority of model guidance depicts a pronounced instability gradient extending across portions of the aforementioned region late this evening that, combined with increased boundary layer stability, makes severe concern further east (into south-central Oklahoma) more uncertain. Will also monitor for localized flooding concern overnight, especially where heavier totals fell earlier this morning (leading to lower flash flood guidance magnitudes). Wednesday: Scattered shower/storm chances to continue, peaking from morning through early evening. A majority of CAM guidance indicates potential for a remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) to traverse the forecast area during the day. This will support at least isolated convective attempts through the day, likely focused across central/eastern zones. While not forecast to be overly robust, marginally supportive instability and organizing wind shear will support low concern for a few strong to perhaps briefly severe thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon/early evening. Damaging winds and hail would be the main concerns with any stronger storm. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The period will be dominated by episodic rounds of precipitation/storm potential across the region. A generally weak/nebulous upper air pattern is expected to continue across the western CONUS from the late week into the weekend. A potentially more active regime is increasing in signal for Thursday, as a strong impulse propagates within the subtropical branch of the jet. This may allow for a more organized round of storms on Thursday afternoon/evening. At this point, large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary storm hazards. The unsettled pattern will continue into the weekend. Despite signs of the upper pattern transitioning towards western ridging, enough support exists for storm concern. Ultimately, this may end up coming in the form of complexes of storms entering the area from prior convection across the High Plains. Owing to bouts of precipitation/cloud cover, temperatures in the extended period are forecast to run below normal for many areas. Coolest days (with temperatures not making it out of the 70s for some) look most likely on Thursday and Friday. Ungar && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Some lingering storms will impact a few sites this afternoon, but most sites will remain VFR this afternoon and evening before additional shower and thunderstorms move across the area overnight into Wednesday morning. Some MVFR conditions will accompany this activity and may linger through 18z. Gusty east/southeast winds will diminish some this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 64 78 64 78 / 30 50 20 50 Hobart OK 63 80 64 79 / 50 40 40 50 Wichita Falls TX 66 82 68 82 / 50 30 30 40 Gage OK 59 79 61 79 / 60 30 50 60 Ponca City OK 62 78 62 79 / 30 40 20 40 Durant OK 66 83 66 81 / 30 60 20 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...30