223
FXUS64 KOUN 290316
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1016 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

A shortwave trough moving through the northern/central Plains will
drive a weak front south toward northern Oklahoma this evening. This
boundary will be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development.
Although much of this activity is expected to remain north of the
area, a few storms may make their way into northern Oklahoma
overnight. Some strong wind gusts would be the main hazard with
these storms.

Otherwise, breezy south winds will continue overnight with very warm
overnight temperatures. With the winds and high dewpoints
temperatures will only fall into the upper 70s and lower 80s tonight.

The aforementioned front will continue to move slowly south during
the day Saturday, possibly approaching the I-40 corridor by late in
the day. This front will again be a focus for afternoon thunderstorm
development across portions of central and northern Oklahoma.
Sufficient instability will be present for a few strong to severe
storms with this activity. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
hazard along with some hail risk.

Before the storms develop, another hot and humid day is expected
with heat advisory criteria being met across the west with central
and southeast Oklahoma and portions of north Texas reaching
excessive heat warning criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The storms will linger through the night Saturday night into at
least the first part of the day Sunday. With weak wind fields this
activity will move rather slowly and with the high precipitable
water present isolated heavy rainfall appears possible. This
activity will also push the effective boundary toward the Red river
Sunday, which may limit the overall heat risk, at least for one day
across much of the area. Head advisory may still be needed across
the south.

Can not rule out isolated afternoon storms near the residual surface
boundary across southern Oklahoma, but this front will be gradually
washing out as we go late in the day Sunday and into the evening.

Upper ridge becomes centered over Oklahoma and east Texas Monday
into Tuesday. This will limit precip chances and mark a return to
the heat area-wide, headlines will likely be needed.

Another front will approach northwest Oklahoma late Tuesday and to
the south of the front a low level thermal ridge will result in very
hot conditions across much of the area. Most locations expected to
reach or exceed 100 degrees Tuesday.

Rain chances also return with this front, initially across
northwest Oklahoma Tuesday night and then possibly spreading
farther east and south as we go into Wednesday. By late in the week
a possible pattern change occurs as western ridge builds with larger
scale trough in central part of the CONUS. This should bring cooler
temperatures and better rain chances to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

VFR ceilings with some mid and high clouds. Winds will generally
be from the S and SE overnight then becoming S to SW Saturday
although winds will shift towards the NE in parts of the area as a
boundary moves into the area Saturday. Showers/storms will be
possible Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  80 100  76  92 /  10  20  40  30
Hobart OK         80 102  78  97 /  10  10  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  80 101  80  98 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           75  99  70  93 /  20  20  60  30
Ponca City OK     80  99  71  88 /  20  30  60  30
Durant OK         78  99  78  97 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ004>006-
     009>011-014>017-021-022-033>037.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
     OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-023>032-038>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ083>085-087-
     088.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for
     TXZ086-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25