623
FXUS64 KOUN 021133
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
633 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Much less convective activity this morning than what was
anticipated. Most of what is out there is expected to dissipate this
morning with again mainly dry conditions across the area through
much of the day. Although with the amount of instability that will
be present, if any weak residual low level boundaries survive into
the afternoon or there is some differential heating boundary an
isolated shower/storm can not be ruled out.

By afternoon, attention turns to potential convective development
along the dryline, which looks to be near I-27 by late in the day.
Models differ with amount of convective development and also what
does occur, just how far east this activity will make it. Best
chances appear to be across western and southwest Oklahoma, perhaps
continuing across the Red river valley through the night Sunday
night.

Farther north, convection will initiate near a surface cold front
from South Dakota southward into northern Kansas. Some of this may
try to make a run at northern Oklahoma late Sunday night into early
Monday.

Otherwise, warm and muggy conditions expected today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

May have a triple point to play with Monday afternoon across
northwest Oklahoma with a weak surface low connecting both the weak
front across Kansas and a dryline that will be located across
western Oklahoma. Storms may form by afternoon near this
intersection and then expand east and southeast into central and
then eastern Oklahoma by evening.

Surface boundary will still be in place as we go through the day
Tuesday, along with the dryline and may see more isolated
development along these boundaries Tuesday afternoon and evening
from central into northeast Oklahoma. Does appear to be some upper
support as trailing end of shortwave trough traverses the area.

By the middle of the week mid-level ridge builds east out of the
Rockies into the Plains as large upper low moves through the Great
Lakes region. This will initially bring warmer temps to the area
with most of Oklahoma and north Texas warming into the 90s with only
minimal rain chances. We also remain on the fringe of northwest flow
and by late in the week models bring another surface front south
into the area, which may bring slightly cooler air and at least some
additional rain chances for the end of the week into the following
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Low clouds have developed across southwest Oklahoma and western
north Texas this morning with mainly VFR to near MVFR ceilings.
Thunderstorms are moving across far northwest Oklahoma so
have added a mention of TSRA at WWR through about 14Z. A breezy
southerly wind will develop at all sites this morning and continue
through the afternoon. Thunderstorms may develop across West Texas
this afternoon and move into western and central Oklahoma after
00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  70  88  70 /  20  30  40  30
Hobart OK         88  68  94  69 /  20  30  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  88  71  92  71 /  20  30  10  10
Gage OK           91  66  95  66 /  20  30  10  10
Ponca City OK     87  69  87  69 /  30  40  50  40
Durant OK         88  72  87  71 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06