494
FXUS64 KOUN 201948
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
248 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Slightly warmer on Friday with isolated showers/storms
possible...

Southeasterly flow continues to advect moisture into the area, and
the 12Z OUN sounding resembles that of a tropical profile with
improved, deeper moistening of the atmospheric column (up to around
500mb) compared to the observation from last evening. With abundant
moisture in place widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
are possible this evening into Friday, but chances are low (less
than 20%).

Clouds should lessen in coverage throughout the day tomorrow, and
result in slightly warmer temperatures, with low 90`s expected for
most areas and mid-90`s for the post-harvest wheat belt that extends
from northwest into north- central Oklahoma.

Although the NAM shows the potential for marginally severe thunderstorms
across far northwest Oklahoma tomorrow evening, this model solution
is an outlier. Therefore, the probability of this occurring is very
low.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Near-record breaking heat remains the main story for this weekend into
the beginning of next week...

A shortwave propagating quickly across the north-central plains
pushes a cold front towards Oklahoma on Saturday, which
unfortunately, does not reach our area. As the trough impinges on
the northwest edge of the ridge, low-level flow veers ahead of the
approaching front. Meanwhile, the center of the mid-level high
pressure system moves westward and the H500 temperature maxima
moves over Oklahoma/Texas with sunny skies for Saturday. Daytime
highs will be about 5 deg higher on Saturday thanks to the
downslope/diabatic/compressional heating combination. Another 4 to
5 degree jump in air temperatures occurs on Sunday with highs get
progressively higher into Tuesday as the upper ridge remains
situated over the southern CONUS. Rain chances have dropped to
less than 10% this weekend with this forecast package.

A tiny bit of good news: there is the possibility that a cool front
moves into Oklahoma next Wednesday, which could bring drybulb temperatures
down to the upper 90`s or close to the century mark for Wednesday and
could lead to heat index values below advisory criteria on Thursday.
In addition, shower/storm chances return to the area late Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Daytime heating will result in isolated to widely scattered
showers mainly through 23Z-01Z, with better precip chances across
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. An isolated
thunderstorm or two is also possible. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR
ceilings are expected. Lower clouds should scattered this evening,
but mid to high clouds should prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  90  73  95 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         72  91  73  96 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  72  91  73  95 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           69  91  72  99 /  20  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     73  92  74  97 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         72  92  72  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...06