398
FXUS64 KOUN 090402
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1102 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A hot and humid afternoon is ongoing across Oklahoma and north
Texas with heat index values near or above 100 deg F. With the
daytime heating, isolated thunderstorms may develop along a weak
remnant boundary across northwest/northern Oklahoma this
afternoon. Otherwise, thunderstorms will develop across the
Central High Plains of Colorado and coalesce into a complex that
will move east-southeastward into Kansas. While the most intense
thunderstorms will likely move across Kansas, the southern
periphery of this complex may affect northern Oklahoma later
tonight as it weakens. The primary hazard will be gusty winds.

The effective cold front--reinforced from the aforementioned
complex of thunderstorms--will likely be somewhere near or south
I-40 tomorrow afternoon (uncertainty is driven by how far south
tonight`s convection progresses). Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon with daytime heating
along this remnant boundary. Damaging wind gusts is the primary
hazard with any thunderstorm with large downdraft CAPE (~1000 to
1400 J/kg) and erratic wind profiles. Northerly winds will result
in lower temperatures across northern half to two-thirds of
Oklahoma.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The remnants of thunderstorms across New Mexico and the Texas
panhandle may approach western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of
north Texas Sunday night. Any remnant features (i.e., MCV or
outflow boundary) from the previous day may serve for a focus for
thunderstorms Monday afternoon with a moist, unstable air mass in
place.

By Tuesday, a shortwave trough is progged to dig into the
Southern Plains with a more widespread chance for showers and
thunderstorms across much of the area.

Toward the latter half of the week (Thursday and Friday), a mid-
level ridge is forecast to strengthen across southwest U.S., which
will result in hotter and drier weather across the Southern
Plains.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

TSRA with MVFR restrictions will be possible across northern
Oklahoma overnight, mainly at KWWR and KPNC, with the strongest
TSRA potential after 08/09Z at KPNC. Behind Kansas MCS, frontal
boundary will push south over region tomorrow, with MVFR cigs
possible north of the boundary, mainly northern Oklahoma. PROB30
for TSRA will be retained for central/southern Oklahoma and KSPS
late in forecast period for scattered storms near front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  87  66  80 /  10  30  50  40
Hobart OK         73  92  66  81 /  10  30  60  50
Wichita Falls TX  75  96  69  83 /   0  20  30  40
Gage OK           66  83  61  79 /  40  20  60  40
Ponca City OK     70  83  61  82 /  30  30  30  20
Durant OK         72  93  70  83 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...11