Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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398 FXUS64 KOUN 090402 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1102 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A hot and humid afternoon is ongoing across Oklahoma and north Texas with heat index values near or above 100 deg F. With the daytime heating, isolated thunderstorms may develop along a weak remnant boundary across northwest/northern Oklahoma this afternoon. Otherwise, thunderstorms will develop across the Central High Plains of Colorado and coalesce into a complex that will move east-southeastward into Kansas. While the most intense thunderstorms will likely move across Kansas, the southern periphery of this complex may affect northern Oklahoma later tonight as it weakens. The primary hazard will be gusty winds. The effective cold front--reinforced from the aforementioned complex of thunderstorms--will likely be somewhere near or south I-40 tomorrow afternoon (uncertainty is driven by how far south tonight`s convection progresses). Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon with daytime heating along this remnant boundary. Damaging wind gusts is the primary hazard with any thunderstorm with large downdraft CAPE (~1000 to 1400 J/kg) and erratic wind profiles. Northerly winds will result in lower temperatures across northern half to two-thirds of Oklahoma. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The remnants of thunderstorms across New Mexico and the Texas panhandle may approach western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas Sunday night. Any remnant features (i.e., MCV or outflow boundary) from the previous day may serve for a focus for thunderstorms Monday afternoon with a moist, unstable air mass in place. By Tuesday, a shortwave trough is progged to dig into the Southern Plains with a more widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. Toward the latter half of the week (Thursday and Friday), a mid- level ridge is forecast to strengthen across southwest U.S., which will result in hotter and drier weather across the Southern Plains. Mahale && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 TSRA with MVFR restrictions will be possible across northern Oklahoma overnight, mainly at KWWR and KPNC, with the strongest TSRA potential after 08/09Z at KPNC. Behind Kansas MCS, frontal boundary will push south over region tomorrow, with MVFR cigs possible north of the boundary, mainly northern Oklahoma. PROB30 for TSRA will be retained for central/southern Oklahoma and KSPS late in forecast period for scattered storms near front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 73 87 66 80 / 10 30 50 40 Hobart OK 73 92 66 81 / 10 30 60 50 Wichita Falls TX 75 96 69 83 / 0 20 30 40 Gage OK 66 83 61 79 / 40 20 60 40 Ponca City OK 70 83 61 82 / 30 30 30 20 Durant OK 72 93 70 83 / 0 10 20 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...11