Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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495 FXUS64 KOUN 072321 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 621 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 High clouds (remnant from last night`s thunderstorms and this morning`s showers) continue to gradually shift east with the upper flow and slowly dissipate (this morning`s shower activity has kept cirrus coverage up more than it would have been otherwise). An MCV can be seen in satellite moving east toward Greer county with little impact expected outside of localized cloud cover and perhaps a few sprinkles. Breezy winds will build in from the northwest this afternoon, then diminish this evening. Showers and storms are expected to form off the high plains this afternoon, then make their way as a complex south toward our forecast area this evening. Most of the CAMs confine this activity mostly to Kansas, however, a strong low level jet tonight could help sustain these storms into northern Oklahoma. Instability and shear drop off fairly quickly after sunset, so while there may be an initial risk for marginally severe storms in the evening, storms should quickly diminish in intensity after the sun sets. Temperatures peak tomorrow afternoon with highs in the mid 90s to a few degrees above 100. A few sites in northern Oklahoma may approach heat advisory criteria. A front will nudge into northwest Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon. This will provide a focus for a few isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms around peak heating. With instability marginal and shear lacking, severe storms will be unlikely; though with inverted- v soundings, we could see a few strong downburst gusts. Day && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 As the 500mb high shifts southeast from central Texas, flow around the periphery will keep us under the gun for MCSs through the weekend. With the upper flow a bit farther south, storms will have a better chance Saturday night (compared to Friday night) to dig south into northern Oklahoma. A cold front is expected to surge south Saturday night, slowing down south of I-40. This will both set up a north-south temperature gradient for Sunday afternoon (80s north / 90s south) and provide a focus for additional thunderstorms along and near the front during the day (especially with the help of diurnal heating). Another wave is expected to move through and dig deeper Sunday night, bringing a storm complex off the high plains from the west. Models continue to differ in how fast to bring that shortwave through (and thus how long precipitation chances may linger). After this system moves through, models suggest a relative minima in precipitation chances (though, chances do not go to zero) around midweek. Monday is expected to be the coolest day following the cold front, with a gradual warmup through the week after that. Day && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Will confine TSRA to KWWR terminal for the first few hours of forecast. Uncertainty on how far east and south the current high plains convection will progress later this evening. Will include PROB30 at northern Oklahoma terminals late tomorrow afternoon for scattered TSRA near stalled frontal boundary. Otherwise, VFR with gusty south to southwest winds and LLWS overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 76 97 73 89 / 10 10 0 30 Hobart OK 77 102 74 94 / 0 0 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 76 99 75 96 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 74 99 66 83 / 30 10 40 30 Ponca City OK 74 99 70 84 / 10 10 30 40 Durant OK 74 94 72 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...11