Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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511 FXUS64 KOUN 111032 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 532 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in the Texas panhandle will slowly move to the east-southeast across western north Texas today. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across western north Texas and adjacent parts of far southwestern Oklahoma in association with this feature (development is already ongoing east of Lubbock). A few showers may occur farther to the northeast into west central and parts of central Oklahoma, but will likely be more scattered in coverage with lighter rainfall amounts. The MCV is expected to exit the area to the southeast by this evening. Heavy rainfall and associated flooding will be the primary hazard with precipitable water values progged to be ~1.7 to 1.9" and warm cloud layers >10,000 ft. Deep warm cloud layers tend to favor more efficient rainfall rates due to collision coalescence (i.e., warm rain process). A Flood Watch was issued for portions of western north Texas, where they received 3 to 5+" of rainfall the last 30 hours. HREF ensemble mean QPF indicates widespread 0.5 to 1.5" of additional rainfall with the 90th percentile (reasonable worst case scenario) indicating the potential for locally higher amounts of 2 to 4". Additional heavy rainfall may exacerbate ongoing flooding and result in additional flooding. Limited insolation across western north Texas into southwest Oklahoma will result in a below-average temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s deg F. Elsewhere, seasonable temperatures are expected in the mid to upper 80s deg F. Mahale && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Wednesday will be the transition day toward a hotter pattern as the mid-level ridge across the southwest U.S. expands slightly to the east. Combined with more insolation, temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s deg F. By Thursday, the Grand Ensemble mean of GEFS, ENS, and GEPS members indicate a ~595 dam mid-level ridge across the southwest U.S. and northern Mexico will expand northeastward into the Southern Plains. The rising mid-level heights and the expansion of low-level thermal ridge will result in hot and generally dry conditions Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will range from the low 90s to low 100s deg F. By the weekend, the mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the southeast U.S. as a trough approaches the Plains. The eastward shift of the ridge and the close proximity of the trough will result in a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma. Even so, hot temperatures are expected to continue. By early next week, there are indications that a tropical disturbance may rotate around the western periphery of ridge. A weakness in the ridge, combined with tropical moisture, will result in at least a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma by Tuesday. Mahale && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 MVFR and VFR ceilings this TAF period. Showers/storms will remain possible throughout much of the day with highest chances in parts of western and southern OK and western north TX. Winds will generally shift towards the SE today as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 84 66 89 69 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 83 65 89 69 / 30 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 80 66 89 69 / 50 10 0 0 Gage OK 86 63 92 68 / 10 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 87 64 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 84 66 88 66 / 10 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ083>085-087-088. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...25