Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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830 FXUS63 KPAH 091700 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1200 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A front will bring showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon, especially over southeast Missouri and portions of southern Illinois and far western Kentucky. - The risk for flash flooding remains the greatest in the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri. A Flood Watch remains in effect from this through 1 PM this afternoon as 1 to 2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected with additional rounds of storms. - Dry weather and a warming trend is expected for the week ahead with highs reaching the low 90s by late week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Updated aviation discussion for 18z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 At this time, showers are making their way into Southeast Missouri. Stronger storms are located northwest towards Kansas. A few showers are also forming in Southern Illinois where MLCAPE of 500+ J/kg remains. Rainfall rates are lower than the earlier storms, and severe weather potential has diminished. Northerly winds are providing convergent surface flow towards the boundary, fueling the rain potential. CAMs indicate that showers and storms will continue through the day today, with the better heavy rain and thunderstorms more likely to occur during the morning hours. The Flood Watch was trimmed on the eastern side leaving the western six counties of SEMO which may receive 1-2 inches of additional rain with locally higher amounts. CAMs are in fairly strong agreement on 8z-onward totals. PWs around 2 inches through the early morning are at or above the 99th percentile, so heavy rates have potential to be the driver of flooding issues rather than just total rainfall. Model soundings suggest enough shear and CAPE for a few strong storms and a severe storm is possible. A marginal risk of severe weather covers much of SEMO and part of far Western Kentucky. Dry weather is expected for the week ahead. Initially, temperatures will be cooler than normal with highs in the upper half of the 70s to lower 80s Monday as northerly flow brings in cooler air as a mid-level trough digs into the Midwest. As this trough slides to the east, high pressure moves in on Tuesday. With high pressure shifting to the east, light southerly flow brings in warmer and moister air, with temperatures rising to the lower 90s late week. The latest NBM removed the pockets of slight chance PoPs late week. While a few ensemble members and deterministic runs include precip chances, such as the GFS Thursday evening, broad model support is lacking to justify deviating from the NBM for now. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A return to VFR conditions across all terminals is expected this afternoon as a frontal boundary slowly sags south with low sigs now scattering out. One final round of scattered SHRA is now approaching from the west as pcpn will taper off by this evening. Clearing from north to south is expected with drier air moving into the region. Northerly winds between 5-10 kts will turn light & variable tonight. Monday will start off with tranquil weather as the cu rule supports the development of scattered mid level clouds around 3-5 kft AGL by midday. North winds around 10 kts with a few gusts around 18 kts at KEVV/KOWB is expected. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ086-100- 107>110. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DW DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...DW