Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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108 FXUS63 KPAH 042017 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 317 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon becoming more numerous Wednesday along a cold front. - Any storms will be capable of producing very heavy downpours and frequent lightning. - Drier weather expected Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Aloft, an upper level disturbance is moving across IA/MO this afternoon. Morning cloud cover has slowed destabilization, but recent clearing is beginning to help destabilize the boundary layer. Recent mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPE of generally 500 J/kg or less while an area of cinh was also analyzed which matches with the lack of cu field. Continued solar heating should boost those numbers up closer to 500-1000 J/kg by the late afternoon. The remnant circulation from an overnight MCS may initiate convection this afternoon and this scattered convection will move NE through the area into this evening. Low shear/marginal CAPE should keep storms from reaching severe levels, although a few strong ones are certainly possible. The main threats from these will be flooding, and gusty winds. A cold front will begin to move through the region Wednesday morning and into the afternoon hours. A bit higher coverage of showers and storms are expected along and ahead of this front although the better forcing will be well north of the area. Drier weather is expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure settles to the northwest. Northerly winds will usher in a drier airmass with dewpoints in the 50`s. Temperatures will also be a few degrees cooler. For the weekend, northwest flow develops aloft which may result in a few upper disturbances moving through at times with a gradual increase in chances of showers and storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Mostly VFR expected this afternoon into tonight. More scattered SHRA/TSRA possible this afternoon. Any of this activity could bring temporary restrictions to CIGS and Visb. A cold front will bring more showers and storms Wednesday morning. MVFR CIGS are also expected Wednesday morning slowly improving by the end of the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...AD