523
FXUS63 KPAH 180858
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
358 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog is likely through the early morning hours,
  though uncertainties with cloud cover may limit fog
  development in portions of the Quad State.

- A few showers and thunderstorms may affect the region
  Saturday, especially west Kentucky, while Sunday and Monday
  should be dry.

- An active weather pattern sets up next week, with strong to
  severe thunderstorms possible during the mid week period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Calming winds and recent rainfall provide favorable conditions
for dense fog development through the early morning. However,
periods of cloud cover will limit the duration and coverage of
dense fog. With moderate support from the HREF and a few sites
below a mile by midnight, a Dense Fog Advisory was issued,
though only Carbondale and Hopkinsville have dropped to a
quarter mile vsby so far. Trends have been towards lower vsbys
over the past couple hours but it is likely the end result will
be a very hit or miss dense fog map.

An upper low is crossing from Arkansas towards Tennessee, with
a few showers and storms in northeast Arkansas that might sneak
in but will generally stay south. Shower/storm chances increase
to the chance range later today, mainly in southern portions of
Western Kentucky, associated with the upper low. Following its
departure, ridging moves through Sunday into Monday keeping
conditions dry as temperatures trend warmer. An upper level low
moves ENE towards Wisconsin Monday, keeping precip to the
northern fringes of the CWA Monday night.

Active weather reaches the area late Tuesday, continuing
through the remainder of the week. Low pressure develops in the
lee of the Rockies Monday night, deepening and progressing
northeastward towards the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Breezy southerly winds ahead of the front will bring plenty of
moisture to the Quad State Tuesday with highs a summerlike upper
80s to near 90. Models have converged closer to a Tuesday night
to Wednesday morning timing for a cold front, bringing showers
and storms. Strong storms and the possibility of some severe
storms remains. The line-normal and progressive nature of the
storm line should keep flooding issues limited despite the ample
rainfall that has already occurred this month.

Late week precip chances remain due to an impulse in the south
and another system in the Northern Plains which might send
another front through the forecast area. Ensemble spread
increases following the Tuesday-Wednesday system so confidence
in late next week is low.

Following morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, highs max
out near 80 to the lower 80s today. A warming trend brings highs
to the upper 80s Sunday and Monday with a few 90s possible
Tuesday. Lows Monday and Tuesday night remain elevated in the
upper 60s to near 70. Temperatures cool slightly following the
midweek front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Complicated forecast tonight, as an upper trough/low moves
slowly overhead. Winds will become calm this evening and where
skies clear, IFR or lower conditions in fog and/or low ceilings
are likely. However, the presence of the upper trough means
there could be substantial mid-level clouds to prevent such
development. Went with dense fog at KCGI and KMVN, and then
factored in more mid cloud farther south and east. Conditions
will improve to VFR by midday, but 4-5kft ceilings are likely
over much of the area through the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...DRS