Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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599 FXUS63 KPAH 060730 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier and less humid airmass today and even more so on Friday. - Unsettled weekend ahead with rain chances returning. It looks to be mostly cloudy along with below normal temperatures. - After a cooler and dry start to next week, guidance is trending back above normal later in the week and we may approach 90 by next Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The upper level pattern will feature longwave troughing across the Upper Midwest into the Northeast U.S. today through early next week while ridging will migrate from the Southwest U.S. into Texas. This places the pah cwa in northwest flow most of this time until the primary trough axis shifts south across the Ohio Valley into the Mid- Atlantic early next week. An initial cold front is making passage across the region early this morning, with a noticeable lowering of dewpoints behind it. Areas of fog have developed, some of which is locally dense. Will need to monitor this, but most guidance suggests visibilities improving by 12z as the lower dewpoints continue funneling in. A secondary boundary will pass through the region this afternoon and evening, with even lower dewpoints moving into the region tonight through Friday. Some of the CAMs are spitting out a few light showers along the front this afternoon in the Ozark Foothills, but this appears more likely to remain west of our cwa. Temperatures will remain above normal today (mid to upper 80s) and slightly above on Friday (low to mid 80s). This weekend looks rather unsettled as weak disturbances in the northwest flow move through. It will likely feature quite a bit of cloudiness which will help contribute to the below normal temperatures. Highs only the mid 70s to near 80 are expected. Seems to be a pretty good signal for a decaying MCS to move into the west- northwest cwa by 12z Saturday and transition across the region through the day. However, coverage of precip is uncertain and by afternoon we may be largely dry with only a healthy amount of cloud cover. Additional showers and storms seem likely to develop Saturday evening and overnight which then continue into Sunday. Placement of this second round of convection may be positioned largely across the south half of the cwa. However, models continue to vary regarding exact placement so this is subject to change. Guidance is in rather good agreement bringing the primary trough axis through on Monday and pushing it east by Tuesday. This should keep our region dry during this time. After a spike in humidity this weekend, our drier airmass returns with dewpoints back into the 50s early in the week. 850mb temperatures dropping to around 10C should translate to highs remaining in the mid 70s to around 80 on Monday, with a slight uptick on Tuesday. Ensembles suggest that the upper level ridging to our west will build across the center of the country by later in the week. This will allow our temperatures to jump back to above normal, well into the 80s by Wednesday or Thursday and possibly around 90 by next Friday or the weekend of June 15-16. Could very well be our first prolonged heat wave of the year for Father`s Day weekend. NBM probabilities give us a 50-80% chance of experiencing 90 degree temperatures for that time period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 One cold front passage occurring tonight will scour out the showers/storms that are already south and east of the terminals. The clouds will follow shortly, and this might lead to a little fog developing, although dropping dew points may offer a counter balance. The daytime will see west to northwesterlies with some gustiness potential in the northeast, mainly at KEVV/KOWB and some higher based diurnal cu possible 5-7K FT AGL. Another cold front makes passage, likely dry, as the column becomes increasingly moisture starved with time. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...99